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Asia struggles to ward off impact of European crisis

June 3, 2012

China's economic slowdown is more severe than expected. Export orders are continuing to fall, which is definitely related to Europe's debt crisis.

ANALYSIS

By Bill Savadove

Weak manufacturing activity in China and dismal growth data from India have underscored Asia’s vulnerability to the European turmoil and sparked fresh calls for government intervention.

Asia was long considered a global bright spot, even a haven from Europe’s deepening crisis and the weak US recovery. But the continent is starting to feel the heat as overseas markets deteriorate.

World Trade Organization chief Pascal Lamy said on Thursday that the region was increasingly “interconnected with the rest of the planet and I don’t think this relative immunity will be forever”.

“I would expect, given what is happening in other parts of the world economy, this region to be more affected than it has been so far,” he said.

Lamy’s fears were borne out within hours as the disappointing data stoked calls for China’s and India’s governments to kick-start their economies to escape hard landings, which could worsen the already fragile global outlook.

“China’s economic slowdown is more severe than expected. Export orders are continuing to fall, which is definitely related to Europe’s debt crisis,” said Liao Qun, chief economist for Citic Bank International in Hong Kong.

“Uncertainty in Europe is high. China needs to move faster and more aggressively to speed up loosening of its monetary and fiscal policies.”

China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing indicated a sharper-than-expected slowdown in May, while separate PMI data released by British bank HSBC showed a contraction for the same month.

China has already cut bank reserve requirements three times since December as exports — a key engine of growth — have stumbled, causing economic growth to weaken to its slowest pace in three years for the first quarter.

There are signs that Beijing is ramping up spending with infrastructure projects, but officials and state media have ruled out a massive stimulus plan like a four-trillion-yuan ($635-billion) spending spree in 2008.

Meanwhile, India’s economy grew at a nine-year low of 5.3 percent in the first quarter, data showed Thursday, as the global downturn hit the emerging market giant.

The unexpectedly grim figure was well below analysts’ forecasts for 6.1 percent growth and coincided with China’s bleak data, dimming hopes that emerging countries will power the global economy back to health.

Gasping elephant

HSBC’s chief India economist Leif Eskesen said India’s weakening economy was like a “gasping elephant”.

“The slowdown in growth has proven deeper than expected,” he said.

India’s other indicators are a source of worry: the rupee is at historic lows against the dollar, annual inflation remains high at around 7.0 percent, and the current account and public deficits are large.

That makes it difficult for policymakers to respond to slowing growth, since the bulging public deficit gives little scope for added government spending and high inflation makes cutting interest rates difficult.

Elsewhere, South Korea’s exports — an indicator for the region — declined year-on-year for a third straight month in May as the eurozone turbulence and China’s slowdown took their toll on the economy, figures showed Friday.

South Korea’s shipments to the United States dropped 16.5 percent and those to the European Union fell 16.4 percent.

A PMI reading for resources giant Australia fell deep into negative territory while Taiwan’s HSBC PMI fell to 50.5 from 51.2, barely staying above the contraction level of 50.

Asian stocks have taken a further hit, following a miserable May in which most regional markets gave up almost all the gains they had made since the start of 2012 as Europe’s debt crisis came back into sharp focus.

Companies are also yanking massive initial public offers, citing the weak market conditions. London-based jeweller Graff Diamonds said Thursday it had decided to delay its $1.0 billion offer in Hong Kong.

Another glamorous business, Formula One, is waiting for “the most opportune” time to launch its $2.5 billion IPO in Singapore after turbulence returned to financial markets, a source said on Friday.

- AFP


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