Umno, BN and Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor are in for a nightmarish ride come the 13th general election if they believe their 'trusted' government reports.
Umno secretary-general Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor claims BN expects to win more than the 140 federal seats it took in the 2008 general election.
He is quoting “trusted” government sources. Pray tell: can we expect government sources to tell otherwise?
And who are these “trusted” government sources who produce these intelligence report? Are they reports from Kemas, Jasa or maybe from minister Rais Yatim?
If it is from Rais, then the numbers are understandable. Rais was never known to be good at numerics.
Seriously, let’s look at the numbers. BN admits to the possibility of losing six seats in Sabah and seven seats in Sarawak.
BN is saying it will win more than 140 seats. There are 222 seats in Parliament.
If BN loses 13 seats in East Malaysia, Pakatan Rakyat will be getting 122 seats because in Peninsular Malaysia, the opposition coalition is set to win 109 seats.
With PKR’s Ibrahim Menudin set to win in Labuan, Pakatan has 110 seats already.
What Tengku Adnan dare not reveal is that BN can lose up to 12 seats in Sabah and up to 13 seats in Sarawak, making a total loss of 25 seats from the East Malaysian states.
Don’t dream, BN
The nightmare ahead is that BN will be reduced to a party with 87 seats. Let me tell you how.
In the four northern states – Perlis, Penang, Kedah and Perak – Pakatan will win 56 seats to BN’s 14.
In the west coast – Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Malacca and Johor – Pakatan will win 35 to BN’s 26 seats. Pakatan expects to win nine seats in Johor this time around.
Out of the 36 parliamentary seats in the east coast states – Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang – Pakatan can win 22 to BN’s 14.
In the Federal Territories – Wilayah Persekuatuan Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya and Labuan – Pakatan will win 11 against BN’s two.
There you are, 110 seats for Pakatan, and we haven’t even talked about Sabah and Sarawak!
The writer is a former Umno state assemblyman but has now joined DAP. He is a FMT columnist.