If the voting trends go along the same lines as it did in 2008, it is then the end for both Umno and MCA.
But Umno wants to save its Islam-bashing partner at all costs even if it means speaking like an infidel.
MCA, on its part, must do everything to keep the Chinese intact but it’s facing an uphill battle.
MCA has lost its credibility and relevance. It goes to town, saying if Pakatan Rakyat wins, then PAS will “Talibanise” everything.
It claims if Pakatan wins you can’t play mahjong, eat pork, bah kut teh, wash hair, yam seng and all that.
But we all know that MCA must say that PAS will restrict everything.
Umno and MCA are playing two sides of the same coin, but the subterfuge is not fooling everyone.
So, how do we kill off MCA for good? There is a simple formula.
If only 30% of the Malays vote for Pakatan and 80% of non-Malays vote the same way, MCA is finished. This is all we need.
MCA can lose all its 15 parliamentary seats in the next general election.
50% Malays with Pakatan
MCA has 15 parliamentary seats, most of them in Johor. Out of the seven seats in Johor, only two have Malay majority.
The fact is MCA is safe only in two parliamentary seats – Air Hitam and Alor Gajah. The rest are shaky if not gone already.
The prospects of eliminating MCA as such is good. Some 80% to 85% of non-Malays are supporting Pakatan and 50% of the Malays will vote for Pakatan.
We have many instances where voters in areas with Malay majority gave substantial support to Pakatan.
In Jerantut, Pahang, for instance, the almost 90% Malay community gave 46% support to Pakatan.
Therefore Umno can’t assume that just because an area has a majority Malay electorate, it has their big support.
In 2008, Umno candidates got only two 2 million votes from the 5.7 million Malay voters. That’s only 35% Malay support.
Let us now assume Pakatan has 30% Malay support and the backing of 80% of non-Malays. This will be enough to ensure MCA is finished. All we need to ensure is the 30:80 formula.
And if voting goes along the same line as it did in 2008, then Umno is doomed.
The writer is a former Umno state assemblyman but has now joined DAP. He is a FMT columnist.