The 2 by-elections: It’s do or die time
The stakes are extremely high for all parties and the outcome of the by-elections is likely to provide the contesting parties with the momentum to propel them into the 14th General Election.
By Thomas Fann
On June 18, 2016, the voters of Sungai Besar in Selangor and Kuala Kangsar in Perak will have a chance to elect new Members of Parliament.
This was brought about by the tragic death of both the MPs in a helicopter crash in Sarawak during the state election campaign.
Sungai Besar was won by the late Noriah Kasnon of Umno with a wafer-thin margin of 399 votes (or 49.6% of votes cast) while Kuala Kangsar was won by the late Wan Mohammad Khair-il Anuar Wan Ahmad also of Umno by 1,082 votes (50.4% of votes cast).
Both seats are deemed extremely marginal and are up for grabs.
Under Article 55(3) of the Federal Constitution, if a vacancy arises at a date which is less than two years from the date on which Parliament’s five-year mandate is expiring, no by-election needs to be held.
The tenure of the current 13th Parliament term will expire on June 24, 2018.
These two by-elections would indeed be the last opportunity for Barisan Nasional (BN) and the Opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH), together with their former coalition partner PAS, to get their act together.
The stakes are extremely high for all parties. The outcome of the by-elections would likely provide the momentum to propel them into the 14th General Election due in two years.
Barisan Nasional, while still euphoric over its landslide win at the Sarawak election, still has to shake off the controversy over 1MDB and the RM2.6 billion in the prime minister’s personal accounts.
The ratings for PM Najib Razak, albeit improved after Sarawak, is still dangerously low and with former PM Dr Mahathir Mohamad leading a charge to remove him, Najib would be desperate to have good results from these two by-elections to strengthen his position in the party.
A bad result would lead to increased pressure against him before the 14th General Election (GE14).
The Opposition coalition of Pakatan Harapan, fractured even before the Sarawak state election, is now badly bruised by the result of it.
If they cannot come to an agreement with their former bedfellow PAS and with each other over who is to contest the two seats and go for multi-cornered fights, and lose the contests, it may spell the end of hope for a meaningful challenge to BN’s hegemonic six-decade-long rule.
With nomination day fixed for June 5, the top priority for PH is to come to an agreement with PAS to field only one candidate for each seat against BN.
Splitting the Opposition votes will likely hand both seats to BN.
The number one factor and campaign issue PH and PAS have to consider should be Najib. They have to make the by-elections a referendum on Najib.
His detractors have pointed out that under his leadership, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) was imposed, 1MDB was exposed, draconian laws were passed, critics were persecuted and corruption reached high levels.
Do we have politicians who can rise above their narrow agendas, unite together, seizing this golden opportunity to deal Umno/BN a double blow and restore hope for Malaysians who seek reformation of political and public institutions?
Or are we to continue witnessing the shenanigans of small-minded politicians clambering for power at all cost, even at the expense of the country?
As it is, judging by the lower turnout of the Sarawak state election, the people are politically tired and frankly, fed up.
Fed up with the disunity of the Opposition. Fed up with the absence of real solutions to our cost of living, education and security malaise. Fed up with the Rosmah jokes, even 1MDB and the RM2.6 billion donation issue.
It’s not that they are not important or that people condone them but how are we going to make things better?
People are tired of negative politicking from both sides. When times are tough, we need to have hope. We need ideas. We need a vision for a tomorrow that is brighter than today.
If by some miracle, PH and PAS can come to an electoral pact to contest separate seats and win both seats convincingly, then the dying embers of hope may just be rekindled in the hearts of many and GE14 may yet be the watershed election for our nation.
If not, many more bags will be packed as people start to look for greener pastures elsewhere and for those who are still around by GE14, many would not bother to vote.
In my humble opinion, the upcoming by-elections is a do or die scenario for both BN and the Opposition. For BN, it is the survival of Najib; for the Opposition, the survival of hope.
*Thomas Fann is chairman of Engage, a non-governmental organisation dedicated to encouraging and empowering citizens to get engaged with nation-building.
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