PETALING JAYA: Vehicle sales in Malaysia are expected to normalise with shorter waiting periods forecast in 2024 compared to today.
“Based on current data projections, car sales will return to normal by 2024 as the current volume of orders has returned on track across almost all brands,” said RHB Investment Bank analyst Jim Lim.
“There was no waiting time for many car models other than for import units as well as requests for certain colours, the order delays have declined,” he added
For now, only Toyota, Perodua and Honda are the car manufacturers that have waiting times for all their models, he said.
“The total industry volume (TIV) in 2024 is projected to drop to the low of 600,000 units, following the lack of factors to boost it to 700,000 units.
“The use of electric vehicles (EV) is expected to increase, but we do not think it will significantly increase (the TIV),” Lim said.
The Malaysian automotive industry created a new sales history after recording a TIV of 720,658 units in 2022, with the figure projected to drop to 680,000 units this year.
Lim stated that the strong performance in 2023 has been factored into the prices due to a general consensus in the market that a robust performance will be recorded this year, particularly for Toyota and Perodua.
He mentioned that investors are believed to be closely monitoring any possible decrease in order volumes, as this could be an early indicator of a decline in car manufacturers’ earnings.
“Therefore, the market may take into account the weaker prospects for 2024. With order volumes returning to normal and waiting times getting shorter, we believe that investor sentiment towards automotive company stocks may become more cautious,” he said.
Lim said that most senior executives from automotive companies are also optimistic about the domestic automotive market’s prospects for this year.
He mentioned that Toyota and Perodua are among the optimistic ones, following their respective outstanding orders of 49,000 units and 190,000 units.
He said this puts both brands on track to achieve their 2023 sales target of 93,000 units and 314,000 units, respectively.
“However, our forecast for Toyota and Perodua is that they can each achieve sales of 100,000 units and 320,000 units.
“As for the other manufacturers, Tan Chong Motor still faces obstacles, while prospects for Sime Darby remain challenging as its China operations may take time to recover,” he added.