PETALING JAYA: Malaysia could increase its revenue by an additional RM320 million for every US$1 (RM4.73) increase in oil prices, says TA Securities.
“This calculation takes into account only the petroleum income tax (Pita) and petroleum royalties variables.
“Nevertheless, when we introduce another factor, namely dividends from Petronas, the potential additional revenue from each US$1 increase in Brent prices escalates to nearly RM650 million,” it said.
In a note today, the research house said the Brent crude oil price might surpass US$150 (RM712) per barrel if the Hamas-Israel conflict escalates.
Brent crude oil was down by 0.5% at US$91.04 (RM430.76.) at the time of writing.
Regarding local equities, TA Securities said the impact of global geopolitics and the Gaza conflict on the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) is likely short term.
The research house said that if the Israel-Hamas conflict is contained, the FBMKLCI’s initial downside movements will be limited to only 2% to 5%, with the June 9 low of 1,369.41 acting as strong support.
It said the sentiment may improve if Israel and Hamas become more willing to participate in peace talks in the future.
“In such a scenario, any correction in the FBMKLCI is a good opportunity to buy, as the benchmark index is trading at an undemanding consensus 2024 price-earnings ratio of 13.1x and price-to-book of only 1.2x,” it noted.
Moving forward, TA Securities said if the war escalates, the correction could be steeper and prolonged for several months.