Investors have been clamouring for Beijing to deliver more concrete plans for the country’s stuttering economy since last month’s slew of stimulus announcements that had fanned hopes officials would unload the “bazooka” policy many have been calling for.
However, after a blockbuster rally across the mainland and Hong Kong markets, three high-level briefings that had caused much anticipation fell well short of expectations and sparked a sell-off that ate into those early gains.
Today’s news that gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 4.6% was fractionally better than forecast in an AFP survey of economists but still marked the slowest pace of growth since the start of 2023.
However, traders cheered news that the central bank launched a facility to provide greater liquidity and boost share buybacks, while boss chief Pan Gongsheng said officials were considering another cut to the amount commercial lenders must hold in reserve.
Meanwhile, state media said top banks had cut rates on yuan deposits today for the second time this year as part of a move to boost lending.
That came as data showed retail sales — a gauge of consumer spending — and industrial output rose more than expected in September.
Authorities have struggled to reignite the economy as it battles a stinging debt crisis in the property sector and torpid consumer activity, with an eye on hitting an annual growth target of five percent this year.
Shares in Hong Kong and Shanghai burst higher today on hopes the government was ready to do what it could to support the economy, with tech giants and beaten-down developers among the best performers.
ING’s China chief economist Lynn Song said the beat in the third quarter numbers keeps China within striking distance to hit its full-year growth target… and requires a slightly less impressive fourth-quarter growth rate than what was previously expected.
Harry Murphy Cruise, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, added that the latest supports are welcomed and they’re likely to propel the economy to its target for the year.
“But more is required if officials are to address the structural challenges in the economy. Absent that, property will remain a drag through 2025 and households will have little incentive to lift spending,” he said.
He added that he saw growth easing to around 4.75% next year and slowing further over the next two.
There were also gains in Tokyo thanks to a weaker yen.
Taipei was well up thanks to a near 5% rally in chip titan TSMC a day after it reported a bigger-than-expected increase in net profit for the third quarter and raised its growth forecasts for the year thanks to strong demand for AI tech.
Bangkok, Jakarta, Mumbai, Manila, Singapore and Wellington rose, though Seoul and Sydney retreated.
London dropped, while Paris and Frankfurt advanced.
Gold rose to a record US$2,714.10 and crude prices climbed on geopolitical uncertainties after Israel said it killed Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar.
Traders were already on edge over the crisis in the Middle East as Israel battles Hamas in Gaza and, more recently, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, with worries about a region-wide war that could take in Iran.
Wall Street had a largely uneventful day as forecast-topping US retail sales saw investors scale back bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and pushed the dollar higher against the yen and euro.
Adding to downward pressure on the single currency was another rate cut by the European Central Bank, and an indication that more could be in the pipeline as inflation comes down.