KUALA LUMPUR: If Invoke Malaysia’s data-driven predictions come true, Pakatan Harapan will wrest five states from Barisan Nasional in the 14th general election (GE14).
However, the more shocking forecast made by the PKR-linked organisation is that PAS will lose every single parliament and state seat they contest, even in their stronghold of Kelantan.
Speaking at a forum on its GE14 predictions today, Invoke founder Rafizi Ramli also revealed that Pakatan Harapan will win 89 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia, putting it ahead of BN’s 76 parliamentary seats, should there be multi-cornered fights across the board. The predictions did not factor in Sabah and Sarawak, however.
According to Rafizi, BN will only retain Terengganu and Pahang, but succeed in regaining Kelantan from PAS after 28 years.
“Negeri Sembilan and Melaka, meanwhile, will be hung states with equal representation from BN and PH in the state assemblies,” the Pandan MP said.
The results also show that PH will retain Selangor and Penang, and add Kedah, Johor and Perak to the list of states under its control.
Invoke data also showed that PH support among the Malays, Chinese and Indians stands at 14.1%, 82% and 40% respectively as of February 2018.
Rafizi said this support had been increasing steadily each month since December. He noted what was more significant in the same three months was the decline of Malay support for BN by 6% a month since December from 41.1% to 28.5%.
“The last time Umno lost this much Malay support was in 1999. A big wave is coming,” he said, adding there was a significant correlation between the drop in BN support and increase in fence-sitters.
He added that the data showed there was a sizeable amount of fence-sitters, around 30% to 35%, but it was likely that they would support PH.
The PKR vice-president said that the prediction was also based on the seats after the redelineation exercise by the Election Commission, and which was presented to Prime Minister Najib Razak today.
“So, if Najib proceeds with the tabling of the EC proposal in the Dewan Rakyat, we are ready. Just bring it,” he said.
Rafizi said that the prediction of GE14 outcomes did not include Sabah and Sarawak, due to the difficulty in obtaining the necessary data.
Asked for an estimate, Rafizi said that PH and Warisan in Sarawak and Sabah could contribute around 15 parliamentary seats, effectively giving the federal opposition around 100 to 105 parliamentary seats overall.
Based on this estimate, however, it would mean that BN will retain control of Putrajaya with an estimated 117 to 122 parliamentary seats.
Explaining the methodology, Rafizi said data for the prediction has been gathered since 2016 through various Invoke surveys via phone calls, social media, and canvassing by volunteers among others.
The surveys cover 24 strata of voters, covering different races, age groups, genders, and geographical locations, to make sure that the data from the ground doesn’t only cover one group of people but a diverse group of Malaysians.
Over 200,000 responses were recorded and 300,000 data points were obtained through digital polling, social media tracking, government aid data, electoral roll, daily surveys, membership data and so on. The margin of error for the Invoke surveys is 1.5% to 4%.
This data allows Invoke to run a logistic regression to build a predictive model of how a person will vote.
Invoke’s predictions by state
Below are the predictions for the outcome for each state in GE14, by parliamentary and state seats, according to Invoke Malaysia.
Perlis – BN to win the state
Parliamentary seats – BN (3) PH (0) PAS (0)
State seats – BN (13) PH (2) PAS (0)
Kedah – PH to win the state
Parliamentary seats – BN (5) PH (10) PAS (0)
State seats – BN (14) PH (22) PAS (0)
Penang – PH to win the state
Parliamentary seats – BN (2) PH (11) PAS (0)
State seats – BN (5) PH (35) PAS (0)
Perak – PH to win the state
Parliamentary seats – BN (14) PH (10) PAS (0)
State seats – BN (27) PH (32) PAS (0)
Selangor – PH to win the state
Parliamentary seats- BN (2) PH (20) Pas (0)
State seats – BN (6) PH (50) PAS (0)
Negeri Sembilan – hung state
Parliamentary seats BN (5) PH (3) PAS (0)
State seats – BN (18) PH (18) PAS (0)
Melaka – hung state
Parliamentary seats – BN (3) PH (3) PAS (0)
State seats – BN (14) PH (14) PAS (0)
Johor – PH to win the state
Parliamentary seats – BN (10) PH (16) PAS (0)
State seats – BN (27) PH (29) PAS (0)
Pahang – BN to win the state
Parliamentary seats – BN (9) PH (5) PAS (0)
State seats – BN (27) PH (15) PAS (0)
Terengganu – BN to win the state
Parliamentary seats – BN (8) PH (0) PAS (0)
State seats – BN (31) PH (1) PAS (0)
Kelantan – BN to win the state
Parliamentary seats – BN (14) PH (0) PAS (0)
State seats – BN (44) PH (1) PAS (0)
Parliamentary seats – PH (11) BN (1) PAS (0)