Lee Kuok Tiung, a senior lecturer at Universiti Malaysia Sabah, said although some parties like PBS and SAPP had yet to decide whether to contest, unity among opposition outfits in the state had increased.
“Solidarity among opposition parties has grown stronger since the Sandakan by-election,” he told FMT.
“After one and a half years, people can see the performance of the government of the day. Some might be happy while some feel it has gone from bad to worse.
“It will be challenging for Warisan-PH-Upko to promise voters that they will or can do better. It will be an uphill task for them to win.”
The Sandakan seat was won by Stephen Wong in the 14th general election (GE14) last year. Wong, who defeated his closest competitor by over 10,000 votes, died of a heart attack on March 28, necessitating the by-election on May 11.
He was succeeded by his daughter Vivian Wong, whose margin of victory was even larger at 11,521 votes.
The Kimanis seat was vacated after the Federal Court upheld the decision of the election court to declare Anifah Aman’s victory in GE14 null and void.
Anifah, the former foreign minister, quit Umno last year saying the party had failed to deliver state rights.
Sabah Umno chief Bung Moktar Radin has confirmed that Barisan Nasional (BN) will defend Kimanis, traditionally an Umno bastion, while Warisan president Shafie Apdal has hinted that his party will vie for the seat as well.
Lee said BN would be riding high from its recent victory in Tanjung Piai where its candidate won the Johor parliamentary seat with an overwhelming majority.
“The Kimanis by-election will be used by voters as a measurement stick of the support for Warisan and PH in Sabah, and in East Malaysia in general,” he added.
Universiti Teknologi Mara lecturer Tony Paridi Bagang agreed that the Kimanis polls would reveal voters’ support for the state government but said the results would not be affected by the outcome in Tanjung Piai.
“Political dynamics in the peninsula are not the same (as in Sabah),” he said, acknowledging however that BN’s victories in previous by-elections would boost its morale in the state.
“The question is, will Sabah BN be the same as before, as all the local component parties ditched the coalition after GE14?”
He said the Malaysia Agreement 1963 and the matter of oil royalties would likely be played up by contesting parties.
“But the opposition might have extra artillery as they might capitalise on the Sabah temporary pass issue (PSS),” he added, referring to the document to be issued to foreign workers beginning next June.
The parties’ choice of candidate will also be vital, he said.
“If there is a multi-cornered fight, we will see a split among the Muslim Bumiputera voters.
“The non-Muslim Bumiputera voters, especially the Kadazandusun Murut, might translate their ballots into protest votes, considering the sentiments against illegal immigrants and the PSS issue.”
Whether Anifah defends the seat which he held for three terms since 2004 is another factor for consideration, he said.
“The first question is, will he contest? Secondly, will he contest as an independent or on the ticket of one of the opposition parties – other than Umno, of course?”