Prior to this, four by-elections had been held since GE14. They were for the state seats of Sungai Kandis, Balakong, Seri Setia and the parliamentary seat of Port Dickson. All four were won by Pakatan Harapan (PH) in GE14, so not surprisingly, all four were successfully defended by the coalition. The latest and fifth by-election in Cameron Highlands is very significant as it will be the first time BN has to defend a seat.
The constituency was won by BN ever since it was created in 2004. But over the successive elections, the margin of victory secured by BN has been greatly reduced.
In 2004 (GE11), MIC/BN won by a majority of 6,260; in 2008 (GE12) MIC/BN won by 3,117; in 2013 (GE13) MIC/BN won by 462 and in 2018 (GE14) MIC/BN won by a slender majority of 597 votes only.
No doubt the results over the years were influenced and shaped by both national and local issues.
All the while, BN has been up against DAP candidates. DAP’s share of the votes has seen a steady increase and being part of PH helps to further bolster its standing and credibility.
Of note is the 3,587 votes secured by PAS in GE14. These are hardcore voters who will follow the party leadership’s directive on whom to vote for.
The latest electoral roll shows that there are 32,009 voters including 247 early voters, 12 absentee voters and 385 disabled voters.
The electorate breakdown is as follows:
Malays 33.5%
Chinese 29.5%
Indians 15.0%
Orang Asli 21.5%
Others 0.5%
This time around, BN managed to persuade MIC to sit out the by-election. Many had predicted that DAP/PH would have an easy passage to victory if MIC were to re-contest the seat.
At the end of nomination day on Jan 12, the EC announced that four candidates would be contesting for the seat. BN broke convention by naming a direct candidate, Ramli Mohd Nor, a local from the Semai tribe and its highest ex-senior police officer with the post of assistant commissioner. PH will field DAP’s M Manogaran, who had twice contested the seat unsuccessfully. The other two candidates are Sallehudin Ab Talib and Wong Seng Yee who are both standing as independents. As things usually go, we need not waste too much time deliberating their impact and significance to the political equation. There is little doubt that the contest is really between BN and PH.
With less than 14 days to go to polling day, what is the situation and the sentiments on the ground?
Both sides are playing coy as to their chances of winning. Lim Kit Siang and Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail admit that it is going to be a tough fight for them. Likewise, BN, all too aware of its razor slim majority in GE14 and that it no longer holds power as the federal government, is also playing down its chances. However, acting Umno president Mohamad Hassan was quoted as saying that BN has an 85% chance of winning.
National issues will continue to play their role in influencing the moods and sentiments of the voters. Have things changed much from GE14 to now in a way that impacts the voters?
Admittedly, many things have happened at a fast and furious pace in Malaysia Baru under the PH government. Some are good and welcomed by the people at large, especially the review of economic and fiscal policies, the fight against the scourge of corruption and the implementation of reforms in government institutions. Yet in some key areas of governance, PH has not lived up to expectations, especially in lifting the nation’s economy, improving the cost of living, building national unity and controlling racial and religious bigotry. There is also constant bickering between members of the Cabinet and immature acts and statements by novice ministers. Be that as it may, there is still the feeling that the majority of people are prepared to view PH as a work in progress. They are therefore prepared to give PH a bit more time to prove its mettle and worth.
The recent detente and reconciliation between the Johor palace and Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the elevation of the Pahang regent to the throne and the likeliness of His Majesty being chosen by the Council of Rulers as the next king are all feel-good factors that will help the PH government led by Mahatihr. At the same time, BN and Umno, in particular, are still going through an internal crisis from the beatings they took in GE14. They have not recovered from the problem of credibility and trust deficit suffered under Najib Razak’s government, either.
Insofar as national issues are concerned, the advantage may still be in favour of PH.
In GE14, there were a number of local issues that surfaced and became points of contention between the competing parties. The influx of foreigners as workers to plantations and orchards, some of whom became orchard owners, riled up the local farmers and community. Apparently, some of these foreigners were able to secure citizenship or permanent residence, ownership or rights from the previous government to the land or farms in Cameron Highlands.
There was also the unhappiness with the previous government in relation to the flood problem which claimed several lives. This arose from indiscriminate land clearing by illegal farmers.
There was also the complaint by Orang Asli about fund allocations meant for them which never reached them. Apparently they went to the personal coffers of the BN politicians.
All these and a myriad of other local issues are still fresh in the minds of the voters and are still relevant to the situation.
So looking at the said local issues in their totality, the advantage is with PH.
On the other hand, BN’s choice of Ramli as a candidate from the Semai tribe is a strategic move considering that the Orang Asli comprise about 22% of the voters. There is talk on the ground that with the said clever move, BN can now count on between 60% and 70% of the Orang Asli support. In the last election, the support for BN and PH was quite evenly divided.
The Malay votes are also expected to be in favour of BN considering that their candidate is a Malay or Bumiputera. PAS, too, is throwing its weight behind BN and the choice of Ramli as a candidate makes it easier for them to decide who to vote for as opposed to the Indian candidate from DAP/PH or another Indian candidate from MIC, had that been the case. BN can safely count on about 3,500 block votes from PAS. Looking at things in totality, BN could get as much as 65% to 75% of the Malay votes.
The Chinese votes will be overwhelmingly in favour of DAP/PH. The writer expects as much as 80% of the said votes to go to DAP/PH.
The Indian votes are expected to be split with DAP/PH having a slight edge.
All in all, after factoring the said considerations which include the limited sampling of voters, election history of the constituency, and dynamics of national and local issues, the writer has come to the deduction that as things now stand, BN has a slight edge over PH. Not much of a difference, just a differential of less than 1,000 votes with BN projected to secure about 51.5% and PH 48.5% of the votes. Projected turnout by the writer is around 70%.
However, things are still far from certain. The situation on the ground remains fluid and by the reckoning of the writer there is easily about 15% of floating voters or fence-sitters who are still undecided on whom to vote for. These 3,500 or so voters are yet to be won over by either side. Their decision will in all likeliness decide which way the results will go. We can only make a more definitive projection closer to polling day, say about two to three days before it.
We can expect PH to go into battle with the aura of a victorious David who valiantly slew the mighty Goliath in GE14, armed with fresh confidence as the incumbent government. Now with corruption and money politics under closer control and scrutiny by the EC, the playing field is more level than before. It will therefore come as no surprise if PH is able to make huge strides and gains over the last few days to secure another upset victory.
Wan Haron Wan Hassan is a senior practising lawyer, active in civil society movements.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.