Climatologist and Oceanographer Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang, from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, said there will be a higher incidence of rainfall during that period and a likelihood of serious flooding in the country.
He said this forecast was consistent with the United States’ National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) latest analysis in April that predicted a more than 70% likelihood of the La Nina condition occurring at the end of the year.
In fact, the latest sub-surface temperature at depths of 50 to 200 metres across the Pacific Ocean had already indicated a colder than normal temperature, he told Bernama in an interview recently.
“This is a strong signature of a La Nina development. This condition has already initiated a process that makes the sea surface temperature colder than normal in the next couple of months to indicate the beginning of a La Nina event,” he said.
He said usually after a strong El Nino, the system would “overshoot” and move to a La Nina condition.
However, Tangang said it was still too early to predict whether this year’s La Nina’s intensity would be as strong as the El Nino episode, as based on past El Nino and La Nina episodes, a strong El Nino is not necessarily followed by a strong La Nina event.
A La Nina condition will strengthen easterly winds across the Pacific and this will push moisture to the west and make the region a moisture convergence region with monsoon strength expected to increase and the incidence of rainfall, higher than normal.
“In such conditions, the likelihood for flooding is certainly higher, especially in low-lying areas.”
He also pointed out that the current frequent heavy rains that bring respite to the hot weather, was however, not an indication of the beginning of the La Nina phenomenon.
Instead, he said the situation signalled that weather conditions were returning to normal.
“In the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia especially, the diurnal (daily) cycle is operating well as indicated by the afternoon and late afternoon rainfall that we’re experiencing now,” he said.
On a related development, Tangang said the advancement of today’s technology and global networks on climate and ocean monitoring enabled scientists to forecast anomalous climatic conditions associated with El Nino or La Nina events, at least six months ahead of the occurrence.
He said experts, especially decision makers, should take advantage of this crucial data and use it in the early planning and preparation stage in order to mitigate or lessen the impact of any natural calamity.
Much of the data on the development of the climate condition can be publicly accessible on real time from agencies such as NOAA and the Apec Climate Centre, he added.
– BERNAMA