By Ibrahim Mohamad

With just a few more days to go before polling day, it appears that the real fight in Kuala Kangsar is between Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan. PAS seems to be struggling to strike the right chord with voters.

There’s a good feeling in Parti Amanah Negara’s camp. Some party insiders are even predicting a win for the Pakatan component. One reason is that the Umno candidate, Mastura Mohd Yazid, is still observing her “iddah” following the demise of her husband.

Handicapped by the candidate’s lack of presence in its campaign, the BN camp appears to be losing confidence, according to an Amanah source. Meanwhile, he pointed out, Amanah’s Ahmad Termizi Ramli appears indefatigable in making his rounds, meeting as many people as possible every day.

But the apparent split in Umno presented a more compelling reason for believing that BN would lose the seat, he added. In choosing Mastura for the contest, Umno sidelined three senior people in its Kuala Kangsar division – the deputy chief of the division, the Wanita chief and the youth chief, all of whom were eyeing the candidacy.

PAS’s mobilisation of its once-impressive machinery appears to be lacklustre, perhaps because it is struggling to put across the right messages in its campaign. It may retain votes from its hardcore voters among the Malays, but it won’t get Chinese votes. The Chinese, who make up 24% of the voters, are mostly DAP supporters and will most likely vote for Ahmad Termizi. And it’s a safe bet that some of the Malay votes that PAS got in GE13 will also go to him.

Some observers may be tempted to conclude that Amanah has no place in the game because it trailed behind PAS in the recent Sarawak state election. However, one must remember that the 13,210 votes that PAS got in Sarawak were the result of 15 years of hard work. Amanah, on the other hand, harvested 8,433 votes after a campaign that lasted merely two weeks.

So what does it take to win in Kuala Kangsar?

In GE13, which saw a voter turnout of 84%, Umno won by a slim 1,082 margin. The Pakatan coalition was then represented by PAS.

This time, will PAS be able get the 13,100-odd votes it got in 2013? The expected turnout on polling day is about 73%. Pundits assume that most of the outstation Malay voters will not return to Kuala Kangsar this weekend because they would rather do so for the Hari Raya get-together with their families two weeks after the by-election.

Umno’s performance in Kuala Kangsar has been deteriorating since 2004, when Rafidah Aziz won the seat with a majority of 5,748.

The majority shrank to 1,458 in 2008 and dipped further to 1,082 in 2013. This was because of rising support for Pakatan.

Will the Malays, who make up 68% of the voters, decide the outcome, or will it instead be the Chinese (24%) and the Indians (7%)?
BN used to command 62% of the Malay votes, but it might lose that advantage because of the disaffection in Umno and the candidate’s distance from the public. PAS, which no longer appeals to the non-Malays, will be left only with its 4,300 core Malay supporters. This accounts for 27% of the Malay votes.

Pakatan must therefore wrestle with BN for the remaining 73% of the Malay votes. If Pakatan can maintain its command of 78% of the non-Malay votes and secure 24% of the remaining 73% of the Malay votes, there is an outside chance for Amanah to win by a slim majority of 250 to 300 votes.

Ibrahim Mohamad is an FMT reader.

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