If pundits are right in their speculation that the 14th general election will be called next year, then chances are the current Umno general assembly is the last before Malaysians go to the polls.
That makes it highly significant. The tone struck by Umno leaders at the assembly will dictate Umno’s messaging for GE14. This will also be the last chance for Umno to speak as a united party before the usual rigmarole of politicking and positioning begins as the warlords scramble to retain their power, knowing that some may be replaced by fresh faces.
With this in mind, the messaging coming out from the assembly must be tailored to fit the party’s election strategy. Will it abandon the non-Malay vote in favour of currying favour with the extreme right, or will the communalistic sentiment typical of an Umno general assembly be tempered by the desire to win over the non-Malay vote?
Given the opposition’s apparent inability to form a coherent platform, there is a chance for Barisan Nasional to win back some non-Malay support, but Umno’s partners have spent their years in the wilderness with infighting and politicking, squandering any chance they had of reclaiming support from the nons.
If the strategy is indeed to win back the support of the non-Malays, then several key moves must be made at the assembly. For example, hardliners in the party must be reined in. Perhaps the most visible of these elements right now is Jamal Yunos of the Red Shirts. He and his group have been vilified by all corners of society and browbeaten all over social media.
The Malay reaction to Jamal has been particularly visceral, with some ardently defending his cause and others lamenting the supposed ridicule of the Malay race by those who see him as representative of Malay politicians. However, it is likely that most Malays are utterly opposed to the base, bullying behaviour shown by this self-proclaimed defender of the race.
But then, Umno’s own base is unlikely to take well to the idea of capitulation, and a huge challenge lies in convincing them that the Malays will not lose ground by a softened party stance towards the nons. This will prove one of the harder positions to get the hardliners to accept, but one that is necessary as the party has recognised that it faces a struggle in getting the support of Gen Y and Gen Z. The more Umno trumps up race and religion, the more it will alienate these two cynical generations.
Nevertheless, if Umno does decide to abandon the non-Malay vote, then it is highly likely that the party’s overtures to PAS will continue.
Most important of all, the Umno leadership has to keep itself aware of the depressing state of affairs Malaysians currently find themselves in. The economy affects us all, regardless of race and religion, and things aren’t looking too bright right now. Without concrete policies to lift the economy out of its current malaise, hurting pockets will catch up with Umno no matter how many BR1M payments it makes.
The leadership must drive this assembly. It cannot be just another run-of-the-mill carnival debauched by communalism and cultural imperialism. The leaders must set Umno apart to make it the best option despite its failings and despite the arguments of the opposition.