“I’m excited and looking forward to Chinese tourists coming to Bali again,” the 36-year-old, who goes by only one name, told Nikkei Asia. “Most importantly, always having a group of tourists around means we’ll have income.”
Komang is not worried about the coronavirus spreading, either, despite reports of cases surging in China. “Not at all. As long as they are healthy when they come to Bali, it should be fine,” he said. “I’m vaccinated, so I’m not worried about interacting with tourists.”
He is not alone in his optimism. Across Southeast Asia, hotels, restaurants, airlines and others are looking forward to the impending return of Chinese travellers for the Lunar New Year holiday.
The question is whether the industry is ready to receive them.
In Thailand – the most popular destination in the region for Chinese travellers pre-pandemic – the first direct flight from China since the pandemic arrived on Jan 9, carrying over 200 passengers. Thailand’s health, transportation and tourism ministers were at the airport to greet them with smiles and garlands of flowers.
“It’s a good signal for Thailand’s tourism sector,” said Anutin Charnvirakul, the health minister. “It’s an opportunity for Thais to recover from the damage of the past three years.”
That same morning, Thai officials announced they would not impose vaccine and insurance requirements on arrivals from China, citing sufficient vaccination rates in both countries, low Covid incidence in Thailand and “inconvenience”.
More than a dozen countries, including Japan, Australia and the US, began imposing testing and quarantine restrictions on travellers from China following the reopening, while South Korea suspended the issuance of short-term visas for them.
China stuck to its strict zero-Covid approach longer than any other major country. While travellers from elsewhere in the world have been trickling back to Southeast Asia for some time, without China back in the picture the region’s tourism industry had little hope of regaining its pre-pandemic heights.
Chinese tourists spent US$254 billion during their travels abroad in 2019, according to Statista, much of it in Southeast Asia. That same year, Chinese travellers to Indonesia spent an average of US$1,114 per visit, while in Thailand they spent around US$1,467. When that inflow of money stopped, it left a hole that other travellers have not been able to fill.
That is partly because Chinese travellers accounted for 22% of all visitors to the region before the pandemic, and their spending helped create jobs. The hospitality sector employs almost 11 million people in Indonesia, nearly 8 million in the Philippines and about 7 million in Thailand, according to the latest statistics from the World Travel and Tourism Council.
Budget hotel chain RedDoorz, like souvenir seller Komang, is excited about the return of Chinese tourists even though its customers are primarily domestic travellers.
“Chinese tourists are important,” Amit Saberwal, who started the chain in Indonesia, told Nikkei Asia. “They are big drivers of the travel economy and they will certainly lift the overall sentiment of the industry.”
Airlines are also seeking opportunities in the reopening.
VietJet Air plans to fully resume its Vietnam-China flights by June 2023.
“After China’s pandemic prevention measures are removed and the tourist visa policy between the two countries is restored, VietJet will prioritise reopening the Vietnam-China flight network, starting with flights from Vietnam’s major economic and tourist cities to China’s populous cities in 2023,” VietJet vice president Nguyen Thanh Son said in early January.
The company plans to increase the flight network by 20% to 30% compared to pre-pandemic levels by year-end, Nguyen added.
Before the pandemic, the airline operated the most flights between Vietnam and China, comprising up to 50% of the total flight capacity between the two countries.
In Indonesia, minister of tourism and creative economy Sandiaga Uno said Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Southern and Chinese Eastern, have requested permission to offer direct flights to Bali.
Malaysia Airlines, meanwhile, hopes to recover capacity over its entire network for China and North Asia by the first half of 2023.
But some businesses are tempering expectations of a Lunar New Year boom. The suddenness of China’s reopening before a major holiday left little time to issue visas, renew passports, and ramp up flight and hotel capacity.
“Stakeholders are demanding more than we can supply,” said Punnaporn Wongjunpen, a Thai travel agency owner. “Some hotels focused on Chinese visitors have not yet reopened. Bus operators and tour guides who speak Chinese found work as teachers or other jobs.”
Several members of the Association of Thai Travel Agents who cater exclusively to the Chinese market shut down during the pandemic and are “in wait-and-see mode”, Punnaporn added.
At Central Group shopping malls, the Thai retail group had planned for Lunar New Year promotions before Beijing decided to allow international travel.
“We weren’t counting on Chinese tourists as early as we expect them now. We were expecting the recovery to start in the second quarter of 2023,” said Olivier Bron, CEO of Central and Robinson department stores. The company aims to double sales to Chinese tourists and increase overall sales by 20% from the previous year in 2023.
Jane Sun, CEO of China’s Trip.com Group, said companies in the travel industry have reduced headcount over the past three years after restrictions hammered revenue. “Capacity is not back at the 2019 level yet. Even if we fill all the planes and all the hotels, it won’t be at 2019 levels,” she said.
Trip.com Group’s data shows that searches for trips during the holiday travel period – covering early January to mid-February – to pre-pandemic hot spots have grown significantly, with Japan, Thailand, South Korea, the US, UK, Singapore, Malaysia and Australia being the most-searched destinations. Searches for package tours during the Lunar New Year break soared sixfold.
Though the industry is still struggling to keep up with surging demand, Trip.com’s Chinese-language platform Ctrip launched a campaign to reconnect Chinese travellers with international destinations last year in anticipation of an outbound travel rebound. The company distributed 1 billion yuan (US$147 million) worth of travel spending vouchers across 20 countries.
With flights still limited, high airfares are discouraging some Chinese from venturing overseas during the holiday.
“We will stay put, perhaps visit nearby scenic locations,” said Cao Lingna, a homemaker in Shenzhen who, along with her family members, has recently recovered from Covid. “Overseas travel is out of the question as airfares are still high.”
Many other Chinese also plan to stay home or travel in-country this year. China’s domestic new year travel is set to double to 2 billion trips after the easing of coronavirus restrictions. The Ministry of Transport said in early January that it expects the number of trips to reach 70.3% of 2019 levels this year.
Meanwhile, weekly seat availability for flights from China to Southeast Asia is still down more than 30% compared with the same period in 2019, according to aviation data provider OAG.
But if travellers like Jasper, a 27-year-old from China, are any indication, Southeast Asia can look forward to more tourism once capacity catches up with demand. He booked one of the first available flights to Thailand from southern China, spending over US$1,000 on an air ticket – about three times the pre-pandemic price.
“It feels kind of scary after not being out for three years,” Jasper said, adding that he and his partner planned to spend a few days in Bangkok to “get their bearings” before making any out-of-town trips.
Their last trip before the pandemic was to Japan in December 2019. But this time they opted for the Thai capital, where Jasper used to live, due to Covid-related restrictions on travel to Japan. And after three years of being unable to leave the country, he is not complaining.
“To be honest,” he said, “I’m excited to use cash again.”