The increase in November pricing marks a change for the world’s biggest exporter, which pared prices in September and October as crude demand stagnated. It suggests the Saudis are confident that Opec+ supply cuts will buoy the market even as the pandemic continues to crimp demand.

State oil producer Saudi Aramco raised pricing for Arab Light crude for Asia, its largest regional market, by 10 cents a barrel to 40 cents below the benchmark.

Aramco had been expected to increase pricing for the grade by as much as 20 cents, according to a Bloomberg survey of traders and refiners in late September.

Refiners have suffered as profit from processing crude into fuels such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel tumbled this year amid worldwide lockdowns and travel bans.

But in Asia, margins jumped at the end of September — albeit from very low levels. That probably influenced Aramco’s pricing decision, which came a day later than traders had expected.

Aramco cut official selling prices for the Mediterranean region. It kept most pricing to the US unchanged.

Oil has rallied since April, with Brent crude roughly doubling on the back of the Opec+’s output cuts. Even so, the global benchmark was trading on Tuesday near US$42.40 a barrel, down about 36% this year.

The Opec+ alliance — comprising members of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers like Russia — is scheduled to meet on Nov 30-Dec 1 to review policy on output.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has threatened to wrong-foot speculators who question the coalition’s resolve to bolster prices. He promised last month that traders who bet on lower prices would be “ouching like hell.”

Saudi Arabia’s pricing decision usually sets the tone for other Middle Eastern suppliers, including Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, the second- and third-largest producers in Opec.