The Japanese automaker sold 2.14 million more vehicles than Volkswagen, including sales by group automakers Daihatsu Motor and Hino Motors. The German company, whose sales over that time fell 9% on the year, needs to more than triple its 2022 monthly sales average in December to beat Toyota for the full year.
Toyota looks likely to beat Volkswagen without group auto sales as well.
Strong showings in China and Southeast Asia gave Toyota a leg up this year, though the industry in general struggled to meet demand as issues such as the global semiconductor shortage bogged down production.
Toyota’s parent-only sales – excluding Daihatsu and Hino – in China grew 2% as a capacity expansion in the summer helped the automaker tap a recovery in demand dampened by the coronavirus pandemic. Corolla and Camry sedans sold especially well.
Sport utility vehicles were popular in Southeast Asia, where Toyota logged double-digit growth in Indonesia and Thailand.
Volkswagen did not fare as well in Asia, with sales down 6% in China and up only 6% in the rest of the Asia-Pacific region. China’s coronavirus lockdowns disrupted parts supplies and maritime shipping, even affecting production at the automaker’s mainstay Wolfsburg plant in northern Germany.
China accounts for around 40% of new-auto sales at Volkswagen, compared with 20% at Toyota, which entered the market later. But the smaller scale of Toyota’s business there likely limited the impact of the lockdowns and chip supply issues.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers had predicted a rise in sales of new vehicles this year. But the government’s stringent zero-Covid rules kept some dealerships from operating and forced automakers to adjust production plans until the policy was eased recently.
The easing likely will affect results at Toyota and Volkswagen in December. But the new surge in Covid-19 cases across China could hinder demand from January onward.
Toyota had difficulties in North America and Japan, where sales sank about 10% in each market as a dearth of chips reduced the supply of high-performance models that use large quantities of them. Volkswagen’s sales slid 7% in its backyard of western Europe.
“Challenges to our supply chains will become the rule, not the exception,” said Oliver Blume, who became Volkswagen’s chief executive in September.
Volkswagen remains well ahead of Toyota in electric vehicles, considered a future growth area for the industry. The German automaker sold 360,000 electrics in the first three quarters of 2022, up 25% on the year. Toyota moved less than 20,000, and was forced to issue a recall for the bZ4X, its first mass-produced electric model.
For the fiscal year ending in March, Toyota had planned to produce 9.7 million vehicles. The company downgraded this estimate by 500,000 units last month, reflecting its ongoing semiconductor shortfall.
There have been signs of improvement. Toyota’s global output grew 1% on the year last month to a November record. A return to normal production would let Toyota chip away at its order backlog and reduce delivery delays.
“The worst of the chip shortage has passed,” an executive at a parts supplier said.
S&P Global forecasts global sales of new passenger vehicles growing 6% next year to 83.6 million, but it sees the impact of the chip shortage lingering until at least 2024.