Citigroup raises China’s 2023 economic growth forecast to 5%

Citigroup raises China’s 2023 economic growth forecast to 5%

Beijing's policy support and stabilising economic indicators hint at a potential bottoming.

Citigroup reduced its China full-year growth estimate to 4.7% in August due to mounting concerns over the property sector crisis.
HONG KONG:
Citigroup economists raised their forecast for China’s economic growth for the year to 5%, from 4.7%, citing stabilising economic indicators and Beijing’s supportive policy measures of late.

“The cyclical bottom is here, with all eyes on whether organic demand will pick up amid gathering policy momentum,” Citi economists led by Xiangrong Yu said in a note published on Wednesday.

Citi notes China’s rebounding factory activity and said it expects retail sales to improve and industrial production to hold steady despite a higher base.

The Wall Street brokerage cut its forecast for China’s full-year growth to 4.7% in August on disappointment over Beijing’s policy support until then and especially as worries about contagion from a crisis in the country’s property sector rose.

“Since end-August, policy momentum exceeded expectations clearly, with mortgage repricing and property easing in Tier-1 cities,” they said, also citing a cut in personal income tax.

Beijing is also targeting 5% growth for the year.

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