Trump has threatened an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports which are set to take effect tomorrow, resulting in a cumulative 20% tariff on products shipped from the world’s second largest economy.
State media Global Times said today that Beijing’s countermeasures will likely include both tariffs and non-tariff measures, with US agriculture and food products most likely to be hit.
Following are key details on China’s import of US agricultural commodities and how the trade has evolved:
‘Irreplaceable’ market
China imported US$29.25 billion worth of US agricultural products in 2024, a 14% decline from the previous year, extending a 20% drop in 2023.
US exports to China have declined since 2018 after Beijing slapped tariffs of up to 25% on soybeans, beef, pork, wheat, corn and sorghum in retaliation for duties on Chinese goods imposed by Trump.
Since 2018, Beijing has also diversified its agricultural imports and boosted domestic production in pursuit of greater food security.
Nonetheless, China remains the largest export market for American farmers.
US farm leaders and traders have described China as “irreplaceable” even as they look for other markets to offset declining Chinese demand.
Soybeans
About half of US soybeans, the country’s largest agricultural export to China, were shipped to the Asian nation in 2024, totalling US$12.8 billion in trade, according to the US Census Bureau.
However, China has increasingly relied on cheaper and abundant Brazilian soybeans to reduce its dependence on US supplies.
This has resulted in the US market share in China dropping to 21% in 2024 from 40% in 2016, according to Chinese customs data.
Corn
The US was China’s dominant corn supplier for decades until Beijing approved Brazilian purchases in 2022.
China’s imports of US corn plummeted to US$561 million in 2024 from US$2.6 billion in 2023 as domestic production increased, according to Chinese customs data.
While China’s corn demand has grown over the past decade to support its massive livestock industry, Brazil has rapidly surpassed the US as China’s leading supplier.
Meat and offal
China is a key market for US exports of chicken legs, pork ears and offal – products for which there is little demand in the US.
China bought US$2.54 billion of meat and offal from the US in 2024, down from US$4.11 billion in 2021.
Cotton
China accounts for about a quarter of US cotton shipments in value.
Shipments of US cotton into the world’s second largest economy stood at US$1.49 billion in 2024, down from US$1.57 billion in 2023, according to US Census Bureau data, as economic headwinds squeezed demand for textiles and garments.
Sorghum
China’s imports of US sorghum have risen slightly but the country is trying to reduce its dependence on the American feed grain which is mostly used as a corn substitute.
China imported US$1.73 billion worth of sorghum from the US in 2024, up from US$1.52 billion in 2014.
US sorghum exports to China are facing stiff competition from Australia and Argentina as well as cheaper Brazilian corn.
Wheat
China imported nearly US$600 million worth of US wheat in 2024, the highest in three years.
However, China has reduced overall wheat imports in recent months amid ample local supplies which is likely to impact US shipments.