The assessment by the UN trade and development agency UNCTAD said east Asia and Africa drove global trade in 2025, while US imports stayed strong and Chinese imports lagged.

If current projections hold, global trade in 2025 will exceed US$35 trillion, an increase of around US$2.2 trillion — roughly 7% — compared to 2024, it said in its final update of the year.

Of that US$2.2 trillion rise, goods contribute around US$1.5 trillion, up six percent on last year, while service accounts for around US$750 billion, up nearly 9%.

“Trade continued expanding through the second half of 2025, even as geopolitical tensions, higher costs and uneven global demand slowed momentum,” the agency said.

It said global trade growth slowed in the third quarter of 2025, but remained up 2.5% on April to June.

However, uncertainty is shaping the outlook for next year, it said.

“Looking to 2026, UNCTAD expects weaker growth as slower global activity, rising debt, higher trade costs and persistent uncertainty weigh on performance,” it said.

Geopolitical fragmentation and heightened vulnerability are also likely to weigh on trade activity, it added.

UNCTAD said manufacturing grew 10% over the last four quarters compared to the previous four, led by electronics linked to artificial intelligence-related demand.

Meanwhile automotive trade fell by 4%.