The Ju’aymah terminal on the country’s east coast “was quickly running out of spare capacity” as of March 1, Kayrros co-founder and chief analyst Antoine Halff wrote in a post on LinkedIn. Four of the six tanks at the Ras Tanura refinery – halted after attacks by Iran this week – were full, he said.

Iraq has started shutting oil production at its biggest fields due to the closure of the strait, and Halff said spare storage capacity at the Basrah terminal was less than two days of exports. Opec’s second-biggest producer has very few tanks compared with output levels and exports, he added.

“Iraq’s low storage capacity is a structural vulnerability,” Halff wrote. “Others are poised to follow if the blockage of the Strait continues.”

Overall, aggregate onshore storage capacity across the five Arab producers in the Gulf is roughly 350 million barrels, he said. As of March 1, observed crude stockpiles in those countries was about 175 million barrels. Operational capacity rarely exceeds 80% of nameplate levels, Halff added.