“Europe’s energy dependence increasingly complicates the task of maintaining price stability,” Frank Elderson, a member of the ECB’s executive board, wrote in a blog post.

The continent must “transition now – or pay more later”, Elderson said, arguing that “cutting reliance on imported fossil fuels and accelerating an orderly shift to home‑grown clean energy” would help reduce exposure to geopolitical risks.

“Meeting the continent’s clean‑energy targets would weaken the link between volatile global markets and domestic prices,” he said.

Inflation in the eurozone rose to 2.5% in March, its highest level since January 2025, due to soaring energy prices linked to the war in the Middle East.

The war has also prompted the ECB to revise upwards its inflation forecast for this year to 2.6% from 1.9%.

According to Elderson, less reliance on fossil fuel imports would mean “fewer shocks to households, firms, public finances and financial markets – and ultimately greater macroeconomic and price stability”.

The price tag of the transition to renewable energy is expected to reach around €660  billion (US$760 billion) a year between 2026 and 2030, according to the European Commission.

But “focusing only on these costs is profoundly misleading”, Elderson said.

“Investing in clean, sustainable energy replaces substantial spending on fossil fuels,” he said.

“The real question is no longer whether Europe can afford to make the energy transition. It is whether it can afford not to,” he said.