Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST) said in a statement that even though official Russian figures showed falling GDP and weak industrial production, the country was “manipulating economic data in order to appear more resilient than it really is”.

The intelligence service said that Russia was likely plagued by “higher inflation and a larger budget deficit” than it was communicating.

“Despite the recent period of high oil prices, which has provided Russia with increased revenues, it would take a price of over US$100 per barrel for an entire year to remedy the Russian budget deficit,” MUST said.

“The weak economy does not affect the strategic objectives,” Thomas Nilsson, head of MUST, said.

The intelligence service said that Russia was committed to continuing the war in Ukraine and conducting “hybrid” activities in EU and Nato countries.

“It is a political decision, not an economic one. However, the economic constraints and sanctions do affect what kind of military capabilities Russia can muster, and how quickly this can be done,” Nilsson said.