Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz from the end of February in response to US-Israeli attacks, choking off a key artery for global oil supplies and sending jet fuel prices spiralling.

“The risk-opportunity profile has shifted toward risks,” the firm said in a statement.

“While no restrictions in kerosene supply are currently expected at any of the Lufthansa Group hubs, potentially reduced fuel availability later in the year represents an additional risk factor,” it added.

Though Lufthansa is relatively protected compared to some competitors since it has already locked in the price for about 80% of its 2026 fuel supplies, extra kerosene costs were forecast to amount to €1.7 billion (US$2.0 billion) this year, the firm said.

“Shifts in passenger flows” as flyers switched from Gulf transit hubs to Lufthansa destinations in Africa and Asia would partially offset the hit, the group said, adding that “further cost-saving measures” would also help.

The firm, Europe’s largest aviation group that also includes airlines like Swiss and Brussels, has already had to cancel thousands of flights this year as a result of strikes over cuts to pay and pensions.

Pilots and cabin crew unions have warned that more strikes could be in the cards after Lufthansa shuttered its CityLine subsidiary earlier than expected, citing the costs of labour unrest and jet fuel, although the walkouts have paused for now.

Net profit for the first three months of the year came in at a negative €665 million, a 25% improvement on the loss over the same period last year, Lufthansa said.

For 2026 it forecasts core profit “significantly above” last year’s result of €1.96 billion.