Imports surged 45% in April from a year earlier, commerce ministry data showed today, far exceeding even the highest estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Exports rose 23.1%, slightly above the median forecast.

As imports outpaced exports for a seventh straight month, Thailand’s trade deficit widened to US$10 billion in April, compared with a median estimate of US$5.3 billion.

The trend of strong imports and a widening trade deficit is likely to continue if energy prices remain elevated and the artificial intelligence (AI) boom continues to fuel trade flows, putting further pressure on the baht, said Nantapong Chiralerspong, director-general of the trade policy and strategy office.

The office forecasts export growth this year in a range of minus 3% to plus 8%, with a base-case estimate of 3%.

“The wide range reflects uncertainty over global energy prices and the trajectory of AI-related demand,” Nantapong said.