“There are several scenarios but the 2026 growth forecasts, given the unpleasant surprise in the first quarter, will be revised down from the figures we gave in March,” Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Radio Classique.

The forecasts “will remain positive in most of these scenarios”, he said, while refusing to speak “today” of a potential recession for the country if GDP declines again in the second quarter.

But he warned of “several uncertainties regarding the duration of the Middle East conflict for what’s going to happen with oil prices”.

“When you look at the details, there’s a slowdown not just for exports, which is remarkable, but also for domestic demand… household consumption, household investments and corporate investments,” Villeroy de Galhau said.

GDP shrank 0.1% in the first quarter, official data showed on Friday, a surprise decline that raised doubts about the government’s official forecast of full-year growth of 0.9%.

In May, the International Monetary Fund cut its France growth estimate to 0.7% this year.

Villeroy de Galhau, who is also a member of the European Central Bank’s rate-setting Governing Council, announced in February that he was leaving his post by the end of June, 18 months before his term was set to end.

He was replaced by Emmanuel Moulin, President Emmanuel Macron’s former chief of staff, a move that critics say is part of a move to install allies in top positions before Macron’s term ends next May.