They told FMT the incoming PKR deputy president appeared to be too confident that the coalition could get the percentages of votes from the groups he listed.

On Monday, Rafizi said PH could win GE15 if it secured votes from 70% of its hardcore supporters, 30% of first-time voters and 5% of voters who had previously supported the coalition but had since shifted allegiance.

Council of Professors fellow Jeniri Amir said he believed Rafizi did not take account of what had been happening in the past few years.

He said PH’s performance in its 22 months in power and the Sheraton Move had left voters with a bad impression of the coalition.

“Rafizi can come up with the figures, but I think the whole landscape has changed, as evident in the last three state elections,” he said.

“He didn’t take into account all the events that have happened in PH and how the voters and the public have reacted towards PH, especially after it failed to deliver on its promises and manifesto.”

Barisan Nasional had landslide victories in the Melaka and Johor elections against PH and Perikatan Nasional. In Sarawak, PH suffered a major setback, winning just two seats in the 82-seat state assembly.

Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid of Universiti Sains Malaysia said the voting patterns in Johor and Melaka were a clear sign that PKR and PH had yet to capture the Malay vote.

“So long as the Malays cannot see why and how a PH government can benefit them, they are most likely to deliver PH a defeat,” he said.

He said Rafizi’s target numbers were attainable in urban mixed constituencies, but not where it counted, in the Malay heartlands.

“I doubt it’ll be enough to turn the tables for PH on a nationwide basis,” he said.

Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs also pointed to the Johor, Melaka and Sarawak election results and said he doubted that PH could achieve the numbers Rafizi appeared to be hoping for.

“It is one thing to desire such a voter turnout, but I think it’s quite another thing to effectuate it,” he said.