Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya believes that BN-PH should be concerned about the nationalist sentiments manipulated by Perikatan Nasional leaders through issues such as the Kulim International Airport project, and conflicts between Kedah and Penang.
He also does not discount the possibility that Kedah voters will sympathise with caretaker menteri besar Sanusi Nor over the sedition charges he is facing.
“These nationalist sentiments are not new and were previously employed by (former chief minister) Adenan Satem in Sarawak to unite the people of that state using nationalism to secure votes,” Awang Azman told FMT.
“Nationalist politics may not be the dominant factor, but it is one of the factors that could contribute to PN’s victory.”
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Kartini Aboo Talib said Sanusi appeared to Kedahans as a “hero” who boldly criticises Putrajaya.
Despite his sedition charges and the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission’s investigation into alleged corruption and illegal mining of rare earth elements in Kedah, Sanusi is still active in PN campaign rallies, Kartini said.
She said the results of GE15, where PN won 14 of the 15 parliamentary seats in Kedah, indicate strong support for PN, even among non-Malay voters who were previously inclined towards PH.
“In Kedah, it is clear that PN has majority support from both the Malays and non-Malays,” she said, attributing it to a broader “assimilation” in the state.
A total of 1,585,085 voters are eligible to vote in the state election, with 44.51%, or 705,712 aged 21 to 39 years old.
Based on the last state assembly’s term, BN-PH, which had 12 seats, would need to win seven more to achieve a simple majority in the 36-seat state legislature.
BN-PH’s constituencies are mostly located in coastal areas in Kedah, and interspersed with PAS-held areas such as Anak Bukit, Bukit Pinang, Bukit Lada, Tokai, Sungai Limau, Tanjong Dawai, Pantai Merdeka, Kuala Ketil and Merbau Pulas.
All the areas east of Sungai Tiang are held by PN. However, in GE15, PN managed to capture all the parliamentary constituencies where these BN-PH seats are located, except for Sungai Petani.