Some analysts are of the view that former Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin would not be an ideal candidate to stand in Kedah for the 16th general election.

These analysts argue that the former minister’s more broad-based appeal is a mismatch for Kedah’s “kopitiam-style” politics, where voters tend to be more sceptical of the kind of progressive leanings Khairy subscribes to.

But I beg to differ. I believe Khairy can give the incredibly popular Kedah menteri besar, Sanusi Nor, a run for his money.

For one, politics is about popularity. For the most part, the issues that matter tend to take a back seat. Social media likes have a higher value than, say, a solid argument for or against a policy.

Politics in Peninsular Malaysia, sadly, revolves around race, religion and motorcycle convoys, something we have to accept begrudgingly.

In this context, Sanusi is a safe bet at the polls. He plays football with regular Joes and mingles with people at warungs.

His bravado and off-colour remarks often make the headlines, but he can also turn meek as a mouse in the face of a royal rebuke..

Sanusi is also street-smart and a very shrewd politician. He is a tough act to follow. I know of no other politician who reigns supreme in the popularity contest.

But enter Khairy, whose appeal extends to non-Malays.

Also, unlike Sanusi, Khairy has not said anything to infuriate non-Malays, with caustic remarks largely directed at Umno’s rivals.

He also has additional brownie points for publicly disagreeing with Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh, whose antics have rubbed the non-Malay electorate the wrong way.

Khairy’s Keluar Sekejap podcast, launched after he was sacked from Umno, has also boosted his popularity and reinvented him as something of a statesman. Even DAP’s Ong Kian Ming sings his praises.

In short, Khairy is not only popular—he would likely win over non-Malays, a vote bank that could prove crucial if Malay votes are split.

Khairy’s brand also gives him an edge over Sanusi when it comes to young voters, who are likely to choose a candidate with substance over one who, at times, plays the jester.

Older voters are likely to prefer Sanusi’s brand of politics, but Khairy could still provide some competition. He is, after all, in his 50s. Khairy just needs to frequent suraus, mosques and coffee shops.

When it comes to Muslim voters, they are either progressive-moderate or conservative. In this instance, both Sanusi and Khairy are evenly matched, as voters would choose candidates whose religious principles align with theirs.

Now, combine these factors with Umno’s machinery and the party’s “Rumah Bangsa” initiative, and Sanusi may end up having to pack the personal belongings he has at the menteri besar’s office.

The bigger question, though, is whether Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s Umno would allow Khairy to boost his political standing by taking on Sanusi.

What if he emerges as a giant-killer?

Umno cannot ignore Khairy’s popularity (or fail to exploit it for the party’s sake), but the current crop of leaders may be wary of Khairy getting stronger as this will entice him to challenge for the party’s top posts.

One way to bring a resurgent Khairy back down to earth is by giving him an unwinnable seat—much like what the party did previously by naming him the candidate for Sungai Buloh in the last general election.

Khairy lost to PKR’s R Ramanan by a 2,693-vote majority.

Still, a Khairy–Sanusi battle would be a win-win for Umno’s leadership.

If Khairy fails, they can shrug off the loss and say they gave him a chance, but he blew it.

But if Khairy wins, the Umno leadership will come off as brilliant tacticians and earn themselves some bragging rights.

And while I believe Khairy can give Sanusi a run for his money, there is no denying that unseating the PAS election director would be a Herculean task.

History, however, has shown that it is not impossible.

PKR’s Saifuddin Nasution Ismail, then the Barisan Alternatif candidate, defeated Barisan Nasional’s S Anthonysamy with a 530-vote majority at the Lunas by-election in 2000.

It was a historic “in-your-face” victory, considering that BN was then led by Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Miracles do happen in Malaysia, and they could happen again with Khairy in Kedah.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.