Iraqis go to polls today

Iraqis go to polls today

More than 21 million voters will choose among over 7,740 candidates, nearly a third of them women, competing for 329 parliamentary seats.

Motorists drive past electoral campaign posters in central Baghdad ahead of Iraq’s parliamentary elections on Tuesday. (AFP pic)
BAGHDAD:
Iraqis go to the polls Tuesday to elect a new parliament in the sixth such vote since a US-led invasion toppled dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003.

More than 7,740 candidates, nearly a third of whom are women, will compete for 329 parliament seats.

Here is a look at the general election and the key players.

Turnout fears

More than 21 million voters are eligible but there are fears turnout could drop below the 41 percent figure registered in 2021 — the lowest so far.

An old electoral law will apply to the elections, with many seeing it as beneficial to larger parties.

Parliament restored the law in 2023, replacing a system installed after 2019 anti-government protests which favoured the emergence of independent candidates.

While around 70 independents won seats in the 2021 general election, only 75 independents are contesting seats in Tuesday’s vote.

Shiite majority

Iraq’s Shiite Muslim majority has had the upper hand in Iraqi politics since the overthrow of Saddam’s Sunni Arab-dominated rule.

Following the 2021 polls, powerful Shiite parties came together under the umbrella of the Coordination Framework to form Iraq’s largest parliamentary bloc.

The Framework became a ruling alliance of factions with varying links to Iran, which has brought current PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to power.

These groups are running separately in the election, but they will likely reunite afterwards to name a new PM and form a government.

The main Shiite lists include:

– The Reconstruction and Development Coalition of PM Sudani, who is hoping for a second term and is expected to score a big win.

– The State of Law Coalition led by former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki, who despite his controversial past still holds sway in Iraq’s politics.

– The National State Forces Alliance of senior politician and cleric Ammar al-Hakim, who leads the moderate Shiite camp.

– The Al-Sadiqun list of faction leader Qais al-Khazali, who the US designates a terrorist but has emerged in recent years as an influential politician.

– The Badr organisation led by Hadi al-Ameri. It is one of the biggest pro-Iran factions within the Hashed al-Shaabi, a network of former paramilitary units that have been integrated into the regular security forces.

– The Huquq list, which is close to Kataeb Hezbollah, a pro-Iran armed faction designated as a “terrorist” group by the US.

Observers predict the main Shiite competition to be between Maliki and Sudani, who launched his political career in 2010 in Maliki’s government.

Sunni divide

Sunnis are running separately, with the main list belonging to influential former parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbussi, who leads the Taqadom party (Progress). He is expected to score a big win.

His main competitor is the Al-Siyada Alliance (Sovereignty) of controversial Sunni politician and US-sanctioned businessman Khamis al-Khanjar, and parliament speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani.

A third list, Al-Azm alliance (Determination), is led by lawmaker and businessman Muthanna al-Samarrai.

Kurdish rivalry

Autonomous Kurdistan in northern Iraq has long been dominated by two parties: the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).

Opposition party New Generation has also emerged in recent years. Its leader Shaswar Abdulwahid was sentenced in September to five months in prison over an old defamation case.

What happens after the vote?

Iraq’s Supreme Court must first ratify the election results.

Two weeks later, the newly elected members of parliament should convene for a swearing-in ceremony and to choose their speaker, who by convention should be a member from the Sunni community.

Within 30 days of their first meeting, lawmakers should elect the country’s president, who must be a Kurd and receive a two-thirds majority vote.

The president then has to appoint within 15 days a prime minister, who will be named by the largest Shiite bloc, formed through post-election alliances.

Once the prime minister is chosen, he has one month to form a government and present it to parliament for a vote of confidence.

But these processes are often challenging, with deadlines frequently missed due to political bickering among rival factions.

Parties tend to delay votes, opting instead for intensive talks, which can impact not only parliamentary proceedings but also cause unrest.

What is the regional impact?

Like his predecessor, the next prime minister will have to maintain the delicate balance between Iraq’s allies, Iran and the US.

Since the US-led invasion, Iran has seen its Shiite allies installed in Baghdad’s halls of power.

For more than two decades, Tehran has held a major sway in Iraqi politics. It does not only back influential politicians but also supports armed groups.

But the “Iranians are the weakest they’ve been” since 2003, said political analyst Hamzeh Hadad.

The past two years have seen Israel inflict heavy losses on Iran-backed groups including Palestinian militants Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Huthis in Yemen.

Iran itself was on the receiving end of an unprecedented Israeli bombing campaign in June.

Tehran has several interests in Iraq ahead of the vote: retaining its influence, challenging the US with powerful Tehran-backed armed groups, and keeping the Iraqi market open to products from its crippled economy.

“Even when Iran is weak, it’s not necessary that it has to flex. It has just become a natural response of Iraqi leaders to give Iran more precedence,” he said.

Washington on the other hand wants the opposite: to cripple Iran’s influence.

It has long pressured Iraq to disarm Iran-backed groups.

By sanctioning Iraqi entities and banks, it has sought to undermine Iran’s ability to evade sanctions — a strategy it is expected to maintain after Tuesday’s vote.

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