State elections do not directly affect the stability of India’s federal government but are closely watched as a test of voter sentiment toward the ruling coalition. Opinion polls predict an easy win for an alliance led by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in one state and tight contests in two others. The fourth is likely to stay with the opposition.

Voting was under way in Assam and Kerala, along with the federally administered territory of Puducherry, while West Bengal and Tamil Nadu will vote later this month. Results from all the elections are due on May 4.

A BJP‑led alliance has ruled Assam for two successive terms and is expected to win again, according to public opinion platform Vote Vibe, while the opposition is set to retain Kerala.

In West Bengal, where the removal of large numbers of names from voter rolls during a revision exercise has become a major issue, the ruling regional party is ahead in a tight race, a Vote Vibe survey for broadcaster CNN‑News18 showed.

The Hindu nationalist BJP has never ruled West Bengal but says it wants to win to curb what it calls illegal immigration from neighbouring Muslim‑majority Bangladesh.

In Tamil Nadu, a coalition that includes the BJP is expected to mount a close challenge against a ruling regional party, Vote Vibe said.

Vote Vibe founder Amitabh Tiwari said it was unclear what role global energy disruptions would play in the elections, but surveys by his agency showed voters broadly praised the Modi government’s handling of energy security since the Iran war began in late February.

India has not raised retail prices of regular petrol and diesel despite higher global prices and has diverted cooking gas for household use from some industries.

India typically relies on the Middle East for more than 40% of its crude oil imports and over 90% of its cooking gas imports.