Iran retains “about 40% of its pre-war arsenal of drones” and “upward of 60% of its missile launchers”, according to assessments cited by the newspaper.

Officials said more than 100 launcher systems, which had been concealed in “caves and bunkers”, have been recovered since the start of a two-week ceasefire on April 8, suggesting that Iran is actively restoring its operational capacity.

They added that Iran is also working to retrieve missiles buried under rubble following strikes on depots and underground facilities, with some estimates indicating it could reclaim “as much as 70% of its prewar arsenal” once recovery efforts are completed.

Despite heavy damage to its weapons manufacturing infrastructure, US officials believe Iran still has “more than enough to hold shipping in the Strait of Hormuz hostage in the future.”

Analysts said Tehran’s deterrence strategy increasingly relies on geography and asymmetric capabilities.

“Everyone now knows that if there is a conflict in the future, closing the strait will be the first thing in the Iranian textbook,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence official.

While US warships are capable of intercepting incoming threats, officials noted that “commercial tankers have few defences.”

Russia has also weighed in on the strategic implications, according to a report.

“One thing is certain: Iran has tested its nuclear weapons. It’s called the Strait of Hormuz. Its potential is inexhaustible,” said the deputy head of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev.

Iran has so far refrained from directly escalating against US naval measures, including a blockade that has disrupted maritime trade.

Officials note that seaborne trade accounts for “roughly 90%” of Iran’s economic activity, estimated at US$340 million per day, much of which has been halted in recent days.