Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said that with the anti-hopping law, sacking Hishammuddin would free the Sembrong MP to join Perikatan Nasional in the opposition bloc.
On the other hand, he said, Hishammuddin would lose his seat if he quit Umno following his six-year suspension.
“That’s the main reason why Hishammuddin was suspended, and not sacked like Noh Omar and Khairy Jamaluddin. Khairy and Noh can be dispensed since both are not MPs.
“This (action by Umno) will not affect the government’s stability too much, because the 30 BN MPs are still theoretically supporting the unity government,” he told FMT.
Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia said the sacking and suspensions of several prominent figures in Umno would solidify party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s position.
This, in turn, would contribute to the stability of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s government until the next general election, he said.
“The backlash will come from Umno members and supporters who might vote for PN or sit out the upcoming state elections. Many of them already did that in the recent general election (GE15),” he said.
“For Zahid, survival is the important thing now, and the only way he can do that is by being part of the federal government. What matters to Anwar is for Zahid to keep Umno together and, by extension, holding the unity government together.”
Khairy and Noh were sacked by Umno on Friday night for breaching party discipline during GE15.
Hishammuddin, former Umno information chief Shahril Hamdan, former Jempol MP Salim Sharif and Tebrau division leader Maulizan Bujang were suspended for six years.
Umno Supreme Council member Puad Zarkashi revealed that Hishammuddin was the main mover who got 10 BN MPs to sign statutory declarations backing Muhyiddin Yassin as prime minister after GE15.
He said Khairy was sacked for publicly speaking out against the party and Zahid on the campaign trail, though he admitted that he was unsure why the former Rembau MP was sacked.
Azmi said Zahid was stuck between a rock and a hard place as he would be accused of stifling opposition in the party by acting against them, and of being weak if he failed to take disciplinary action.
He said Khairy and Noh had clearly gone against the party in the run-up to GE15, and it was “very clear” the party’s disciplinary board was right to sack them.
“But if (Zahd) didn’t act as he did, he would be accused of being very weak, and this will make his opponents in Umno even more vocal,” he said.
Azmi said how this move was received by the grassroots will be reflected in the upcoming party polls, even though the top two Umno posts will not be up for grabs.
“Whether this move has backfired or given an advantage to Zahid’s camp will be known at the internal polls,” he said.
Umno will be holding its party elections for the new Supreme Council and divisional leaders on March 18.