
Sterling has declined this week, weighed down by political tensions over Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit legislation and mixed economic data. Wednesday’s report showed that an increase in auto-fuel prices helped arrest a decline in inflation, leaving opinion divided over when the Bank of England will raise interest rates next after disappointing production and wage-growth data earlier in the week.
“Since headline inflation isn’t picking up, we still see material downside risks to the UK inflation outlook and don’t buy the 50% probability of an August hike,” said Andreas Steno Larsen, a currency strategist at Nordea Bank AB. This is “ultimately more negative for the pound.”
One-week option volatility on the UK currency snapped a three-day decline amid political tensions. Prime Minister May has until Friday to make good on a promise to rebels within her party over Parliament getting a vote on the final deal, while also keeping Brexiteers on a side. The concessions she is likely to make should reduce the possibility of the pound-negative scenario of Britain leaving the European Union without a deal, according to Rabobank analyst Jane Foley.
The pound fell 0.4% to $1.3324, taking this week’s loss to 0.6%. It weakened 0.4% to 88.19 pence per euro. The yield on UK 10-year government bonds declined three basis points to 1.37%.