
Policymakers voted 11-to-1 in favour of the larger cut to boost demand and bolster the labour market amid signs inflation was falling toward the bank’s long-term 2% target, with Fed governor Michelle Bowman the only voting member of the committee to publicly back a smaller cut.
Yet behind the scenes, the full committee – which includes seven non-voting members – was more reluctant to back a 50-basis-point (bp) cut during the deliberations than the initial decision published on Sept 18 suggested, according to minutes of the meeting.
While a “substantial majority” ultimately supported the 50bp cut, some participants “noted that there had been a plausible case for a 25bp rate cut at the previous meeting,” according to the Fed minutes.
However, despite not cutting over the summer, “some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25bp reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision,” the Fed said.
One concern raised in the discussions was that a larger cut could be read as a signal the Fed was looking to make a series of bigger rate reductions going forward, when no such decision had been taken.
“Several participants noted that a 25bp reduction would be in line with a gradual path of policy normalisation that would allow policymakers time to assess the degree of policy restrictiveness as the economy evolved,” the Fed said.
“A few participants also added that a 25bp move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalisation,” it added.
But in the end, almost all voting members of the committee coalesced around a larger cut, bringing the Fed’s benchmark lending rate to between 4.75 and 5.00%.
Futures traders now see a roughly 80% chance that the Fed will move ahead with a 25bp cut at its next meeting in early November, according to CME Group data.