Oil prices jumped early in the day after US-Israeli strikes on the key Iranian oil export terminal of Kharg island. But the market later moderated, with West Texas Intermediate rising a bit and the Brent international benchmark slipping modestly.
Major US indices spent most of the day in negative territory but gained momentum in the final moments of the day after the White House confirmed receipt of a Pakistani proposal to extend Trump’s deadline.
Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare described the market as in a “purgatory” state, but still “of the belief that the worst case scenario will be avoided.”
Trump had previously vowed to bomb bridges, power plants and other civilian infrastructure in Iran if the country does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil-tanker traffic.
Writing on Truth Social Tuesday, Trump elevated his ultimatum for Iran, stating that “a whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”
It was not clear exactly what he meant by his latest threat, or by what means he intended to carry it out.
While the S&P 500 spent almost the entire day in the red, a late session rally pushed the broad-based index narrowly positive.
Markets increasingly take Trump’s commentary with a grain of salt, noting prior instances where he watered down tariff threats and delayed deadlines on Iran.
The market will “believe the worst case scenario when it actually sees it,” O’Hare said. “It’s been down this path previous times with this president.”
Earlier in Europe, Paris, London and Frankfurt all closed around one percent lower.
“The conflict in the Middle East is one long deadline after another and there is a constant stream of promises to end the war coming out of the White House,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.
“Ultimately no one knows what the president will do next, and this is causing tensions to remain high in financial markets,” she said.
Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war on Feb 28, driving up global oil and gas prices, as around one‑fifth of the world’s oil normally flows through the strait.
Tehran showed no sign of backing down, with its Revolutionary Guard warning that it will destroy energy installations across the Gulf if US attacks cross its “red lines.”
The hit to fuel supplies from the Middle East has forced governments around the world to unveil economic support measures amid fears of another spike in inflation.