The US and Iran exchanged fire and traded barbs again yesterday, piling fresh pressure on a fragile month-long ceasefire as Iran reviews Washington’s proposal to end the war.
Oil prices jumped, with US crude futures rising as much as 3% in early trading, adding to the risk-off mood in currency markets.
The dollar index measured against key peers was a touch firmer at 98.235.
The rising tensions lifted the greenback for a second day from an over two-month low struck early in the week on hopes of a peace deal, putting it on track to finish the week largely flat.
“The path towards a lasting agreement is anything but linear,” wrote Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
“Traders have had to rethink the assumptions on the trajectory of the conflict and the normalisation of vessel flows through Hormuz that had been made over the last couple of sessions,” Weston said.
Markets are also bracing for the US non-farm payrolls report later today. and it may take an outlier number, particularly a sufficiently weak one, to really move the dial on dollar volatility, he added.
Sterling traded at US$1.3555, headed for its first weekly loss since March, as investors awaited local election results that could heap further political pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The euro was steady at US$1.1727, poised to end the week a touch firmer.
The Australian dollar fetched US$0.72059, and the New Zealand kiwi changed hands at US$0.59365, both on track to post a winning week on improved risk appetite in earlier days.
Traders remained focussed on the Japanese yen after recent interventions and verbal warnings from Tokyo kept sharp selling at bay.
The yen was largely steady at ¥156.995 in early Asian deals and is set to end the week on a steady footing.
Japan faces no constraints on how often it can intervene in currency markets and is in daily contact with US authorities, its top currency diplomat said yesterday, reinforcing Tokyo’s resolve to defend the embattled yen.
“Against the current backdrop of elevated energy prices and rising yields, Japanese intervention can only act as a safety harness on the yen’s descent, but it can’t pull it to safety,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.
“Until macro and technical conditions change, the yen is likely to keep testing the Bank of Japan’s resolve,” he added.