While SoftBank’s “all-in” bet on OpenAI has proven lucrative so far – the ChatGPT-creator’s valuation has leapt to US$840 billion in its latest funding round in February – analysts say the Japanese company may be approaching the limit of what it can finance.
TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar estimates that SoftBank’s 11% stake in OpenAI would be worth US$80 billion at the end of March, up from US$54.4 billion at the end of December.
Across the group SoftBank is expected to report a net profit of ¥236 billion (US$1.50 billion) in the January-March quarter, according to the average of seven analysts surveyed by LSEG.
The company’s earnings are quite volatile from quarter to quarter and are at times way off analyst estimates.
SoftBank is also due to invest a further US$30 billion in the ChatGPT-creator over 2026, which may herald further gains should OpenAI’s public listing, billed for late 2026 or early 2027, go ahead as planned, TD Cowen’s Sankar wrote in a note.
However, the degree of concentration in a single private company has sparked concern about the investment’s sustainability and drawn parallels with failed shared office provider WeWork, which SoftBank bankrolled but which later went bankrupt.
Jefferies analyst Atul Goyal wrote in a note that SoftBank has provided most of the capital in recent funding rounds which have supported OpenAI’s steadily rising valuation.
SoftBank is having to borrow more to keep up with its commitments.
After OpenAI’s latest funding round, S&P Global Ratings revised SoftBank’s credit outlook to negative, judging that “SoftBank’s asset liquidity and quality of its portfolio, and its financial capacity are likely to deteriorate because of its additional huge investment in OpenAI”.
While SoftBank said it had secured a US$40 billion bridge loan in March to fund its OpenAI investment, a media report last week indicated it had to downsize a proposed additional margin loan, to be backed by its OpenAI stake, after hesitation from creditors.
Another report said SoftBank planned to create and list an AI and robotics company in the US as early as this year, aiming for a valuation of US$100 billion, as a means of offsetting its investment commitments.
Therefore, investors and analysts are seeking clarity on where the money could come from.
SoftBank has a further US$25 billion of investments to fund in 2026 – US$16 billion for Stargate data centre developments and US$9 billion for the acquisitions of ABB Robotics and DigitalBridge, TD Cowen’s Sankar estimated.
SoftBank declined to comment on the media reports.
Shares soar
Nevertheless, stock investors are buying into SoftBank’s prospects for now.
Its shares have almost doubled since the start of April, approaching the record high of ¥6,923 hit in October last year.
Some see more upside to come. At the end of April Nomura analyst Daisaku Masuno raised SoftBank’s share price target to ¥7,500, backing its long-term potential to achieve founder and CEO Masayoshi Son’s lofty ambitions.
“While the upside potential has narrowed due to recent gains, Nomura believes that the catalyst for future price increases will be progress in the company’s own initiatives, such as the development of its proprietary AI accelerator and its AI robotics business,” Masuno wrote in a note.