The 76-year-old telecoms billionaire has been serving a one-year prison sentence for corruption since September.
He is due to be paroled Monday morning, with the requirement to wear an electronic monitor until his probation ends in four months.
Thaksin’s political machine has for two decades been a key rival of Thailand’s pro-military, pro-royalty elite who view his populist brand as a threat to the traditional social order.
His Pheu Thai party, and its earlier iterations, was the country’s most successful party of the 21st century, with the Shinawatra family producing four prime ministers and drawing widespread support from the rural population.
But Pheu Thai had its worst election result ever in February, slipping to third place and raising questions about the future of Thaksin’s dynasty.
Yet Pheu Thai’s inclusion in the ruling coalition of conservative prime minister Anutin Charnvirakul has left open the possibility of a political comeback.
For his die-hard supporters, Thaksin’s release “will strengthen Pheu Thai in the short term because people will feel that the Pheu Thai owner is back”, said political science lecturer Wanwichit Boonprong.
But Thaksin’s “old enemies, the conservatives” will rally around Anutin, who “has what Thaksin does not have – the trust of the elites”, Wanwichit added.
The anti-Thaksin conservatives “will unite and focus on Thaksin’s next move – and whether he will stay away from politics”.
Ex-PM on parole
The corrections department announced Thaksin’s parole last month, citing his age and the fact that he had less than a year left to serve as reasons for early release.
Thaksin was jailed after the Supreme Court ruled last year that he improperly served a 2023 sentence in a hospital suite rather than a prison cell.
He was elected prime minister in 2001 and again in 2005, and took himself into exile after his second term was cut short by a military coup.
After returning to Thailand in August 2023, he was sentenced to eight years for corruption and abuse of power.
But rather than prison, he was whisked to a private room in hospital on health grounds, his sentence was reduced to one year by royal pardon, and he was freed as part of an early release scheme for elderly prisoners.
The timing of his return and his medical transfer, which coincided with Pheu Thai forming a new government, fuelled public suspicion of a backroom deal and allegations of special treatment.
The Supreme Court ruled in September that Thaksin had not been suffering from a critical health condition and his time spent in hospital could not count as time served, landing him in prison to serve his one-year term.
Thaksin was one of more than 850 prisoners who were also approved for early release.
His daughter, former prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, told reporters on Thursday after meeting with Thaksin in prison that they had “not discussed anything about politics” and only spoken about family.
Thaksin’s nephew Yodchanan Wongsawat, who became Pheu Thai’s standard-bearer ahead of the February election, was made minister of higher education in Anutin’s cabinet.