He told FMT it was more likely that PAS would find itself rejected by East Malaysian voters as well as many urban voters on the peninsula, including those who supported it in the 2013 election.
“PAS isn’t likely to become kingmaker if the election result in East Malaysia is Barisan Nasional (BN)-heavy,” he said.
“In the west coast of the peninsula, it’ll be competing in an urban scenario, which makes non-Muslim votes important. So, there could be an erosion in seats for PAS, especially in Selangor.”
Tawfik, who was MP for Sungai Benut from 1986 to 1990, also said PAS might face internal opposition to the idea of cooperating with either Umno or Pakatan Harapan (PH).
“There’s some discontent within PAS over any electoral pact with Umno,” he said. “Many members also dislike Dr Mahathir Mohamad, and this makes a pact with PH require tough bargaining.”
He was commenting on PAS’ recent statement that the party would become kingmaker if it could secure 40 parliament seats.
At a ceramah in Muar, PAS Syura Council chief Mahfodz Mohamed said his party would be in the position to impose conditions on either BN or PH. He said one of the conditions would be an agreement from the interested party to form an Islamic government.
Tawfik also questioned claims that PAS had a highly effective campaign machinery.
“The PAS machinery is quite formidable in mustering participants for rallies, but whether it has the stamina for the campaign period is another matter,” he said. “I hold the view that women are the crucial factor. Can PAS’ women do better than Wanita Umno?
“In fact, PAS’ misogynistic attitude may swing the rural Malays to Umno.”
Tawfik said a more likely scenario was that Malay-based parties would come together after GE14.
“My speculation is that if there is no clear mandate, the Malay parties may form a coalition after GE14 in the name of Malay unity.”
He said things would be gloomy for East Malaysians and liberal Muslims on the peninsula if PAS were indeed to be in the position of kingmaker.
“Peninsular Muslims will be subject to stiffer shariah laws as well as civil laws and East Malaysians will be subject to more proselytising by Islamic bodies,” he said.
What will Malaysia look like under a PAS-Umno administration?