“Don’t just look at the number of Malay voters, but consider who they will vote for in areas with three-cornered fights.
“In 1995, it happened when PAS managed to woo the Malay voters.
“But between Barisan Nasional (BN), PAS and PPBM, they will vote for PPBM, especially in marginal seats,” he said.
In any case, Lee added, PH needs only a mild “Malay tsunami” in the peninsula to tip the balance of power.
Speaking to FMT, the former Subang Jaya assemblyman said MCA, MIC and Gerakan seats were shaky as well, more so after the redrawing of electoral boundaries.
“Without MCA realising it, the redelineation exercise has taken away some of their Malay voters’ support.
“BN is willing to do that because it knows that MCA will not be able to win more than five seats. The only seats MCA is able to retain are Bentong, Tanjong Malim and Alor Gajah. Even in Ayer Hitam, DAP has a good chance.”
He said even newer parties like Amanah and PPBM had a good chance in urban and rural areas.
As for Amanah, he said its candidates were all prominent figures: party president Mohamad Sabu, chairman Hatta Ramli, deputy president Salahuddin Ayub, Shah Alam MP Khalid Samad and Sepang MP Mohamed Hanipa Maidin.
“Because they are all in urban areas, although there are areas where Amanah will face three-cornered fights, it will be able to win these seats,” he said.
For PPBM, meanwhile, he said the majority of rural Malay voters would accept its chairman Dr Mahathir Mohamad even under a PKR ticket.
Although PPBM would not be able to contest using its party name and logo, he added, Malay voters in rural areas were not as naive as they were perceived to be.
Pandan MP Rafizi Ramli previously dismissed speculation that Mahathir and PPBM would cause a Malay tsunami which would favour the opposition in GE14.
The likelihood of a Malay tsunami, like the 2008 Indian tsunami fuelled by the uprising of Hindraf the year before, has been intensely debated by leaders from both sides of the political divide.
Many opposition leaders, and even former MIC and MCA leaders, believe that Mahathir is capable of causing a Malay tsunami that will swing a large chunk of Malay votes towards the opposition.