In the past, Sarawak was deemed Barisan Nasional’s “safe deposit”, but that seemed no longer the case in GE14 after Pakatan Harapan (PH) wrested 10 of the 31 parliamentary seats in the state and went on to form the federal government.
That was the highest number of Sarawakian parliamentary seats an opposition bloc had ever won, an outcome that led to the departure of the ruling Sarawak parties from BN.
The former BN parties – Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), the Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP), Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) and the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) – later formed the ruling Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) coalition.
After PH fell from power in 2020, it became more evident that Sarawak would have a huge say in who would form the federal administration, as shown by the fact that GPS’ crucial backing helped Muhyiddin Yassin become prime minister.
GPS later backed Muhyiddin’s successor, Ismail Sabri Yaakob, for the top post, and it remains a major stakeholder in the federal government.
One of GPS’ biggest tests came last December when Sarawak’s 12th state election was held, the first major electoral outing for the coalition.
But GPS comfortably swept 76 of the 82 seats up for grabs, topping the 73 seats it won in the 2016 election when it was still in BN and under the leadership of the late Adenan Satem.
Now, GPS is set to face its first general election and the challenge of maintaining the momentum and victory it enjoyed in December’s state election.
Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said there was “no doubt” that GPS would dominate the results in Sarawak in GE15, though it might not be as overwhelming as it was in December.
“Some of the urban voters may be more politically aware of the national consequences of their electoral choices. For them, the main thing would be the overall direction of the country. For rural voters, it’s bread and butter issues.
“Rural constituencies, whether state or federal, focus more on socioeconomic concerns which only GPS, with its longstanding incumbent advantage, is in a position to temporarily relieve,” he told FMT.
PH suffered a heavy defeat in the December polls, winning only two of the seats it contested, while Wong Soon Koh’s Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) superseded DAP as the leading opposition party after winning four seats.
Many variables had been cited by observers and politicians as the reasons for GPS’ solid win and the opposition’s dismal performance – from the low voter turnout to PH’s disappointing time in government, and the people’s disgruntlement with politics.
Oh said there could be a higher turnout of Sarawakians in GE15, particularly those from urban areas, as some voters would view the general election as more important than the state election.
However, he said, it remained to be seen how the recent rise in the cost of living would affect the voters’ sentiment and turnout.
For the opposition bloc in Sarawak, he said, it would be an accomplishment in itself if it were to reach some form of consensus and avoid clashing against one another.
PSB and Sarawak DAP have been in talks to avoid clashes in GE15 since May, though not much is known as to the status of negotiations.
Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Pawi said the topic of seat negotiations remained the biggest stumbling block to a united opposition front in the state, with PSB and PH seemingly yet to reach some form of consensus.
If this were to continue, he told FMT, GPS would definitely dominate the parliamentary seats in GE15.
Awang Azman expected a low voter turnout in Sarawak again for GE15, saying voters seemed to be taking a wait-and-see approach to current events.
“Going into GE15, the priority for Sarawakians will still be about maintaining political stability,” he said.
The situation could change if the opposition used the issue of rising prices to spark a widespread rejection of BN.
“This will heavily affect GPS as GPS is seen to be BN-friendly despite leaving the coalition,” he said.