Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said PAS would be going against a resurgent Umno in GE15. He noted Umno’s impressive performance in recent state elections.

In the general election of 1999, PAS won 27 seats against Umno’s 148.

PAS won 18 seats in GE14 and only one seat in the recent Johor state elections.

PAS vice-president Amar Nik Abdullah recently said the party had set a goal of winning at least 40 parliamentary seats in GE15.

“This is more of a rallying cry to consolidate PAS’ members and supporters in facing GE15,” Oh said.

He told FMT he believed many conservative Malays were going back to the Umno fold because of the party’s strong leadership.

“They think Umno will protect their rights and privileges more effectively as opposed to PAS, which stresses more on religious concerns,” he said.

Another analyst, Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya, told FMT it would be difficult for PAS to dominate except in the east coast.

He said Umno, the Islamic party’s main rival, had proven its prowess in governing.

“PAS’ 40-seat target will be difficult to achieve,” he said. “Even defending its current 18 seats will be very challenging.”

Awang Azman also said the focus of Malay politics was moving towards performance and reputation.

“It will no longer be about religion or ethnicity per se, but how those components are interpreted in the future due to societal advancement,” he said.