Geoffrey Williams said the EPF remains in good stead, as it was well managed and had a different investment strategy compared to Norway’s pension fund which recently reported record losses.

“It looks like the returns for EPF may be lower due to the general financial environment but the dividend will still be good,” said Williams, a professor with the Malaysia University of Science and Technology.

“EPF members with high savings could expect the return to be good. EPF is still one of the best risk-adjusted long-term investors,” he told FMT.

Williams said it would be tough to top a 6.1% dividend for conventional savings declared for 2021.

Yeah Kim Leng of Sunway University said most international funds, including the EPF, can be expected to record losses or report poor performance for 2022 due to rising interest rates which have battered capital markets in 2022.

Yeah said sizeable parts of EPF’s portfolio were in fixed-income securities and foreign stocks.

However, Liew Chee Yoong of the Center for Market Education and UCSI University said the EPF is not likely to suffer from major losses and would be able to maintain a payout of 5.5% to 6.5% for 2022.

He said with RM39.3 billion of investment income for the first nine months, it was a decrease of only 18% compared to the RM48 billion recorded in the same period in 2021.

Last year, EPF declared a dividend rate of 6.1% for conventional savings, with a payout amounting to RM50.5 billion and 5.65% for shariah savings with a payout of RM6.3 billion.

EPF’s dividend payout for conventional savings have ranged from a low of 5.2% (2020) to a high of 6.9% (2017) over the past decade.