Asean centrality— the principle that the grouping should address regional challenges collectively— “is based on the idea that we can bring people to talk to each other,” explained Dr Joel Ng, deputy head of the Centre for Multilateralism Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
“Asean can convene things. But the biggest challenge is that external partners, which include strategic competitors (such as the US and China) may not actually be very interested in talking to each other. And if countries aren’t interested in talking to each other, then we’ll have a big problem.”
Ng said the overriding concern is that a lack of discussion and cooperation may lead to conflict spilling over into and destabilising Southeast Asia.
“We’re seeing that in other parts of the world right now. Nobody can possibly ignore the Ukraine-Russia conflict, or the Israel-Palestine conflict.
“These things have that same dynamic where the main actors don’t want to speak to each other, and the conflicts cause terrible, terrible consequences around the region— and not just among the fighting parties.
“In our region, the potential (for conflict and destabilisation) is growing with US-China competition. We know a new Trump administration is going to be a bit more hawkish on China, maybe a lot more hawkish.”
The Myanmar challenge
Associate professor Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya meanwhile cited the Myanmar crisis as one of the biggest challenges dogging Asean, and Malaysia’s leadership, this year.
Malaysia has been vocal on the ethnic conflict since before the 2021 military coup and ensuing crisis which rocked Myanmar, largely due to the influx of Rohingya refugees who have for many years sought shelter on Malaysian shores.
On the longstanding political crisis in Myanmar, Awang Azman said Malaysia could leverage on its criticism of the country’s military junta to call for the establishment of humanitarian corridors.
The humanitarian crisis in Myanmar has hogged the headlines for years.
In a joint statement issued on Jan 6 this year, the European Union, together with the governments of the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, Switzerland, Timor-Leste and the UK expressed concern over the “deepening human rights and humanitarian crisis” in Myanmar.
They cited “credible” reports of human rights violations and abuses committed against civilians including the abduction and forced recruitment of children as well as members of ethnic and religious minorities, the military’s “indiscriminate” aerial bombardment of civilian infrastructure, sexual and gender-based violence, and attacks on humanitarian workers and facilities.
Awang Azman expects Asean’s non-interference policy to limit Malaysia’s actions unless there is a consensus for a stronger stance, but said the country could use its leadership role to prioritise quiet diplomacy and enhanced dialogue.
However, he also conceded that without broader international involvement, a transformative change in Myanmar remains unlikely.
“We need to innovate now (on the Myanmar crisis),” added Ng, noting that this is one area where Asean can do better.
“The leaders and those interacting with the Myanmar officials must come up with new ways to either implement the five point consensus or else develop further— go beyond the five point consensus.”
Although Myanmar’s crisis is an internal problem, Ng said that Southeast Asia and Asean have a responsibility to help the Myanmar people.
“They’re part of the (Asean) community as well. And we need to think more clearly about how this can be done.
“I think Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim was very innovative in the 1990s about engagement with the junta. I hope he will do this a second time around and maybe improve on that and draw from the lessons of the last 25, 30 years on how we can do better.”
Internal divisions
The Myanmar crisis is also part of broader regional division and nationalism mushrooming across the world.
Ng said Asean faces the “same global trend against multilateralism”.
“There’s an increasing tendency to want to go unilateral and for countries to feel that if you go alone, you go faster than these very slow and cumbersome regional organisations.”
However, Asean member states must recognise that regional priorities are in their own national interests, he said.
“If we build up a strong regional grouping, your country is going to benefit.
“Regional destabilisation elsewhere is a very clear problem for other states. What (is worrying) is when countries completely ignore the regional dimension,” he said, citing how Myanmar has snubbed Asean’s Five Point Consensus.
He said the junta presently does not feel the need or desire to promote regional interests, even where it is beneficial to Myanmar.