Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s senior lecturer Mazlan Ali said Muda lacks support in rural areas. Even its urban backing is uncertain due to the party’s weak grassroots presence, he added.
He said that going solo in the Johor polls could lead to heavy losses for the party, making it imperative for Muda to forge an electoral pact with established coalitions such as Pakatan Harapan, Perikatan Nasional or Barisan Nasional.
He said Muda’s sole seat in Johor — Puteri Wangsa — was won only through an electoral pact with Pakatan Harapan in the 2022 state election.
“If Muda contests on its own, they will lose all seats. They may even lose their deposits. They will only have a chance if they join a coalition such as PH, PN or BN, — and that too if they are given seats,” he told FMT.
Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said that while Muda may hope to take advantage of potential vote-splitting in multi-cornered contests, the party is unlikely to emerge with the upper hand given its limited electoral base.
“In the context of multi-cornered contests, the impact on Muda is complex. In theory, such contests can give room for Muda to emerge as victor when votes for major parties are split.
“However, under the first-past-the-post system, this situation more often benefits parties that already have a strong support base. Without a stable vote bank, Muda risks being drowned out in the competition, even if it gains relatively significant support,” he said.
While Muda’s plan to contest between five and 10 seats in the Johor polls reflects a more cautious and strategic approach, Awang Azman said it also underscores the party’s recognition of its current limitations.
“It reflects controlled confidence, no longer the rhetoric of a big wave as seen during its early formation, but an effort to focus resources on specific areas considered to have potential.
“This shows Muda is moving from a phase of idealism to realpolitik, building its support base gradually and in a more structured way.”
On Monday, Muda president Amira Aisya Abdul Aziz said the party aims to contest five to 10 seats in the next Johor state election, ranging from mixed, urban seats to rural constituencies.
While Muda is a part of Ikatan Prihatin Rakyat, a loose alliance formed by Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin, Amira said no official talks with the opposition have taken place as regards working together at the Johor polls.
Citing Muda’s performance in the 2022 state election, Awang Azman said the party’s chances of winning more than one seat were limited.
“If Muda manages to add one or two more seats, it can already be considered significant progress. Any achievement beyond that would require a major shift in voter sentiment or a substantial split in votes among the main parties.”
However, Mazlan said Muda was likely to lose its prized Puteri Wangsa seat without a coalition pact.
He argued that Malaysia’s political culture still favours coalitions over standalone parties. “Muda will not get the support they are hoping for (if they go solo).”
He described the coming election as a crucial test of the party’s survival, warning that losing all seats — along with the deposits paid — could mark the beginning of the end.
“If that happens, Muda will become irrelevant, like other small parties that are no longer supported or given attention.”
In the 2022 Johor polls, Muda contested for seven seats under a pact with PH but won only in Puteri Wangsa.
The seat had changed hands multiple times previously. Won by Umno in 2004, it was wrested by PAS, then under the Pakatan Rakyat alliance, nine years later.
In 2018, the seat went to Bersatu, then a PH component party. The party left the coalition in 2020.