The source said both PH and Umno have agreed to defer the state assembly meeting for six months, preventing any attempt to unseat Aminuddin, of PKR, in the legislature.
Once the state assembly reconvenes, Aminuddin may be undermined either through a motion of no-confidence or a defeat of a state government bill in the assembly.
The state assembly had been scheduled to meet for four days from April 23, but this was called off when the political crisis broke.
Under the law, it must reconvene within six months, which means it is expected to meet by late October, which also coincides with when the state budget is typically presented.
Aminuddin had indicated that the next meeting might be held when the 2027 state budget is tabled.
“The menteri besar’s position is secure for six months following an agreement with Umno, but anything can happen after that,” said the PH source, who was involved in yesterday’s PH-Umno leadership meeting.
Nonetheless, the source expressed confidence that the agreement reached by both sides to sustain the unity state government would hold even beyond the six months.
As long as that understanding remains intact, there will be no political instability even when the state assembly reconvenes, the source said.
Yesterday, government spokesman Fahmi Fadzil declared that the political crisis in Negeri Sembilan had been resolved following a meeting between the BN and PH top leadership.
Fahmi said the Cabinet was informed that the matter has been “settled” after discussions between the coalition leaders, and the unity government in the state will continue to function as normal under Aminuddin.
PH has 17 assemblymen in the 36-member state assembly, followed by Umno (14) and Perikatan Nasional (five). A simple majority of 19 seats is needed to form the state government.
The Umno central leadership has ordered its assemblymen to continue supporting the administration. While Negeri Sembilan Umno said it respects the order, it maintains that its loss of confidence in Aminuddin remains.
Yesterday, Aminuddin said the PH-Umno agreement meant he no longer led a minority government.
Analysts predict state polls in 6 months
Political analysts Syaza Shukri and Mazlan Ali predicted that once the six-month window is up, Aminuddin would seek the state assembly’s dissolution to pave the way for the next state election.
They both expect the state election to be held concurrently with other state elections, particularly the Melaka polls, which are also expected around the same period.
Mazlan said tensions between BN and PH in Negeri Sembilan appeared contained for now, but he expected rivalry between both coalitions to intensify as time progresses.
This could go on to shape electoral dynamics going forward, he said.
“The political crisis in Negeri Sembilan can be said to be over because both BN and PH have decided to continue their cooperation in the unity government.
“However, the reaction of Negeri Sembilan BN, which insists it has lost confidence in Aminuddin, could trigger a prolonged crisis and widening gap in BN and PH’s relationship in the state.
“This will encourage wider political competition between BN and PH in Negeri Sembilan, which means they will almost certainly clash in the upcoming general election or state election,” he said.
Syaza said the arrangement between PH and Umno resembled a confidence-and-supply agreement, where the government’s stability depends on continued support from other blocs in the assembly.
“The state government will hold as long as they are not challenged in the assembly, especially come budget later this year.
“Negeri Sembilan BN’s claim to have lost confidence in the menteri besar would be used as leverage to get what they want,” she said.
However, Syaza disagreed with deferring proceedings, saying there was no immediate crisis to warrant postponing it for six months.
“I suppose after the six months they plan to dissolve the state assembly and go for elections,” she said.