He said any BN comeback would depend on the coalition’s ability to convince voters that it had genuinely renewed itself since its defeats in 2018 and 2022.
“You cannot mistake people’s disgruntlement with the current administration for the idea that, if push comes to shove, they are willing to support BN.
“What has actually changed in the party that would make people who didn’t support it in 2018 and 2022 want to support it now?” he said at the Affin Market Outlook Conference 2026.
Shahril said BN’s problem is not only public perception, but whether Umno’s leadership, internal culture and messaging appear meaningfully different.
“It’s the same faces. It’s the same set of policies. It’s the same dynamic. You have ostensibly progressive faces but also right-wing politicians who remain the core of the party.”
He said this gap could open up the space for anti-establishment figures to attract voters unhappy with Pakatan Harapan (PH) but still unwilling to return to BN.
Naming former PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli and former Muda president Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, Shahril said both built political brands around being outside the establishment.
“Their brand is integrity… They did not sell out, did not strike a deal, and are not your normal politicians.”
He said such figures were unlikely to win enough seats to form the government but could split the vote in a way that disadvantages both PH and BN.
He said this could lead to a post-election scenario where Perikatan Nasional (PN) becomes too dominant for BN to realistically claim the prime minister’s post.
“If PN and BN do not each win about 60 seats, and the result is closer to PN winning 90 seats and BN 30, that changes the equation. It would be difficult to justify a BN prime minister if BN is clearly the smaller partner.”
The 16th general election (GE16) is due by February 2028, though speculation persists that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim may call an early election, possibly in the second half of 2026, to align with the Melaka and Johor state polls.
Despite previously pushing for the unity alliance to continue into GE16, BN has since signalled its intention to contest the next general election independently.
However, BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has said the coalition may still pursue electoral pacts with “other parties” to avoid overlapping seat contests.