Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific have entered an El Niño state, and will develop into a moderate or higher intensity El Niño event in summer and autumn before peaking in autumn and winter, the Climate Centre’s deputy director, Gao Rong, told reporters.

“The probability of strong El Niño events is increasing, and it is expected to weaken next spring.”

El Niño is a natural weather pattern linked to a warming of the central and eastern Pacific, bringing heavier rainfall to the Pacific coast of the Americas. In the Western Pacific, the shift can disrupt the East Asian monsoon, raising the odds of flooding in southern China and drought in other Chinese regions.

This spring and summer, El Niño is in a period of rapid development, with the atmosphere responding significantly to sea temperature changes, Gao said.

This is likely to enhance precipitation south of the Yangtze River, while temperatures across most of China are expected to be higher than usual.

Increased autumn rainfall in China’s southern regions as a result of El Niño also raises the risk of disruption to the harvest of late-season rice, while warmer-than-usual winter conditions could reduce available water supplies for next year’s spring ploughing.

China’s Southern Power Grid said on Friday that since the start of this year, the entire power grid network, as well as the provinces and regions of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan have hit new peak power loads more than 20 times, “breaking the seasonal pattern of annual peaks concentrated in June and July from 2020 to 2025.”