Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border for months before the war began on Feb 24, sparking grave concerns over international food security as the two nations account for nearly a third of the world’s wheat exports.

Thailand’s rice shipments in the first two months of 2022 soared 28% from the same time last year to 1.1 million tons, according to Thai Rice Exporters Association data released last Friday. The group is now considering raising its export target for this year to 8 million tons from 7 million tons.

“Buyers tried to secure rice, as they feared that if the war lasted longer than expected, (it could) push prices of food commodities higher,” said the association’s president, Charoen Laothamatas.

Traders said European importers have been rushing to seal deals for Thai rice fearing speculative buying of agricultural commodity futures in the wake of the invasion could drive up prices.

They noted that although rice is not a perfect substitute for wheat, it can help provide food security during times of geopolitical uncertainty.

“Orders from some countries in Europe and the Middle East, where many Asians live, are also rising,” said Chookiat Ophaswongse, president emeritus of the Thai rice group, highlighting Iraq as a major buyer.

Indeed, Iraq imported 130,000 tons of Thai rice this January and February, dwarfing volumes of just 146 tons at the same time in 2021. China has been another key customer, shipping in around 165,000 tons in the first two months of 2022, up from just under 72,000 tons in the same period last year.

Analysts said a weaker baht is also stoking the appetite for Thai rice, as exporters can sell at lower prices in dollar terms. The Thai currency fell 5% from February to April, dropping to 33.6 to the dollar from 32.

And the Southeast Asian nation looks well placed to meet demand, with a bumper rice crop forecast for this year. It is expected to produce around 33 million tons of paddy, or around 23 million tons of milled rice, with half of that heading overseas.