Regions wield wide-ranging powers in areas including health, education and housing in Spain’s decentralised political system, making the election in the country’s most populous region especially significant.
Andalusia – a sun-soaked tourist magnet famed for its Mediterranean beach resorts and historic cities such as Seville, Granada and Cordoba – was governed by the Socialists for almost 40 years.
But with 85% of votes counted by 10.15pm (2015 GMT), the Socialists were projected to take just 28 of the 109 seats up for grabs – their worst-ever result.
The main conservative Popular Party (PP), which has governed the southern region since 2019, was on course to win 52 seats, leaving it three short of another majority in the historic Socialist heartland.
Far-right party Vox was set to pick up 16 seats and become a possible kingmaker, a role it played after recent regional elections in Extremadura, Aragon and Castile and Leon.
An exit poll for regional broadcaster Canal Sur predicted Andalusia’s PP leader Juanma Moreno would secure a fresh majority, but that outcome appeared in the balance as the results trickled in.
The provisional turnout was above 64%, eight percentage points up on the last election in 2022.
‘Huge weight’
Corruption investigations into family and former top political allies have eroded Sanchez’s popularity at home even as clashes with US President Donald Trump and Israel increase his standing abroad.
After resounding defeats for the left in the previous three regional elections, the debacle in Andalusia will be particularly painful for Sanchez, whose candidate is his former deputy and ex-finance minister Maria Jesus Montero.
The PP had presented Montero as tainted by Socialist corruption scandals and as the face of central government incompetence – as finance minister she failed to pass a budget during the current parliament.
Moreno alluded to the national repercussions of the vote in Andalusia, home to almost nine million people – roughly 18% of Spain’s population.
“What happens in Andalusia clearly determines other things as well,” Moreno told journalists after voting in the coastal city of Malaga, describing his region as “a highly unique land with huge weight”.
The PP has agreed coalition governments with Vox in Extremadura and Aragon and not ruled out cooperation at the national level if the next general election, expected in 2027, yields inconclusive results.
That has set it apart from other mainstream European conservative parties that insist on a “sanitary cordon” against the far right.